Table 1.

Summary of the climate window analysis. n.s., not significant.

climate variables	biological variable	period considered	years	best climate window	p-value best modela	p-value after randomization	fit selected [alternative fit]	sign of the relation	R2 after randomization (k = 10)
nearest open water (LFIE)	breeding success	May–Nov	1979–2017	Aug– Nov	1.48 × 10−5	0.006	linear, AIC = −125.8826 [quadratic, AIC = −125.082]	–	0.386
	hatching success	May–Aug	1983–2017
	fledging success	May–Nov	1983–2017	Nov	x = 0.500 x2 = 0.025	0.035	quadratic, AIC = −107.642 [linear, AIC = −105.3069]	–	0.530
landfast ice area (136°–146°E)	breeding success	May–Nov	1979–2017	n.s.	0.003	0.499		n.s.
	hatching success	May–Aug	1983–2017	n.s.	0.007	0.715		n.s.
	fledging success	May–Nov	1983–2017	n.s.	0.0001	0.266		n.s.
no. days per month with temperatures under −10°C	breeding success	May–Nov	1979–2017	n.s.	n.s.	–		n.s.
	hatching success	May–Aug	1983–2017	n.s.	n.s.	–		n.s.
	fledging success	May–Nov	1983–2017	n.s.	n.s.	–		n.s.
no. days per month with winds above 28 m/s	breeding success	May–Nov	1979–2017	n.s.	n.s.	–		n.s.
	hatching success	May–Aug	1983–2017	n.s.	n.s.	–		n.s.
	fledging success	May–Nov	1983–2017	n.s.	n.s.	–		n.s.
no. days per month with snowfall	breeding success	May–Nov	1979–2017	n.s.	0.044	0.926		n.s.
	hatching success	May–Aug	1983–2017	May	x = 0.003 x2 = 0.017	0.0003	quadratic, AIC = −198.8435 [linear, AIC = −194.5369]	+ (bell shape)	0.321
	fledging success	May–Nov	1983–2017	n.s.	n.s.	–		n.s.

^aFor quadratic relationships, p-values for the linear and quadratic terms are given as x and x², respectively.