Official websites use .gov
A
.gov website belongs to an official
government organization in the United States.
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock (
) or https:// means you've safely
connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive
information only on official, secure websites.
Performance of weather-based out-of-sample forecasts across 120 municipality years in Brazil, with and without consideration for DENV susceptibility cycles.
| evaluation metric | weather | weather + DENV cycle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy | 71.70% | 75% |
| hit rate (sensitivity) | 81% | 78% |
| non-epidemic detection rate (specificity) | 58% | 71% |
| no-information rate | 60% | 60% |
| P (accuracy > no-information rate) | p = 0.005 | p = 0.0004 |
