Table 3.

Predicted total number of clinical COVID-19 cases in the nine weeks subsequent to 4 May 2020 with and without the implementation of travel restrictions. The prediction intervals represent the simulated 0.025 and 0.975 quantiles.

percentage reduction in the contact rate relative to pre-pandemic levels	predicted clinical COVID-19 cases over nine weeks
	travel restrictions	no travel restrictions	magnitude greater without restrictions	percentage reduction with restrictions
40%
mean	1.2	13.6	11.0	91.2%
median	0	12
95% prediction intervals	[0,9]	[2,35]
50%
mean	1.5	18.1	12.0	91.7%
median	0	15
95% prediction intervals	[0,11]	[3,53]
60%
mean	2.1	27.8	13.5	92.4%
median	0	23
95% prediction intervals	[0,17]	[3,79]
70%
mean	3.7	47.9	13.0	92.3%
median	0	35
95% prediction intervals	[0,33]	[3,159]
			mean = 12.4	mean = 91.9%