TABLE 1.

DIYABC results for model comparison

Scenarios	Posterior probability	Confidence intervals (0.05–0.95)	Direct p(Scenario X |Scenario 3) (logistic)	Direct p(Scenario 3| Scenario X) (logistic)
Scenario 1: Constant population size	0.000	0.000–0.000	0.051 (0.038)	6 (9)
Scenario 2: Constant expansion	0.000	0.000–0.000	0.048 (0.043)	11 (18)
Scenario 3: Bottle neck and expansion	1.000	1.000–1.000	0.901 (0.019)	–
			Direct type I error (logistic)	Direct type 2 error (logistic)
			0.099 (0.081)	0.0085 (0.0135)

Logistic regression posterior probability and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of three demographic scenarios. In the last two columns, it is shown the probability of scenarios one, two, or three of having the highest posterior probability given that scenario three was true (p(Scenario X| Scenario 3)); and the probability of scenario three of having the highest posterior probability even though it was false (p(Scenario 3| Scenario X)). In the inferior part of the table, type I and type II error rates are estimated for scenario 3.