Table 1.
Study characteristics and mathematical models structure.
| Lead author (year) | Setting | Disease area | Intervention | Level of health system | Study aim | Transmission model structure | Economic analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adisasmito et al. (2015) | Local - Bali, Indonesia | Influenza | Pandemic influenza case management capabilities strengthening | Decentralised | Simulate influenza spread at the district level given existing resource gaps to inform preparedness planning | Density-dependent deterministic compartmental model (SEAIR) | – |
| Alistar et al. (2013) | Country - not specified | HIV | Multiple, user-defined HIV control interventions | National | Develop a model to guide setting-specific resource allocation across interventions along the HIV cascade | Frequency-dependent deterministic compartmental model (HIV disease stages and treatment status) | Cost-effectiveness analysis |
| Anderson et al. (2014, 2018) | Country - Kenya | HIV | Combination prevention interventions | Decentralised | Model the effect of prioritising key population and of short-term funding cycles on HIV prevention | Frequency-dependent deterministic compartmental model (susceptible, acute-, latent infection, pre-AIDS, AIDS) | Cost analysis |
| Bärnighausen et al. (2016) | Country - South Africa | HIV | Treatment as prevention (TaSP) | National | Model the effects of TaSP on universal ART coverage | Frequency-dependent deterministic compartmental model (susceptible, HIV infection stages) | – |
| Barker et al. (2017) | Regional - sub-Saharan Africa | HIV | ART differentiated care models | National | Model efficiency gains from different service delivery options | Frequency-dependent deterministic compartmental model (AIDS Impact Model, Estimation Projection Package) | Cost analysis |
| Bottcher et al. (2015) | Global | Influenza | Epidemic preparedness | National | Investigate the effects of disease-induced resource constraints on epidemic spreading | Density-dependent deterministic compartmental model (bSIS, recovery rate mediated by resources availability) | – |
| Bozzani et al. (2018, 2020), Sumner et al. (2019) | Country - South Africa | TB | Changes to screening and diagnostic algorithm | National | Develop a pragmatic approach for empirical estimation of health system constraints from routine data to parametrise models | Density-dependent deterministic compartmental model (susceptible, latent infection, active disease) | Cost and cost-effectiveness analysis |
| Chen et al. (2019) | Country – not specified | Sexually transmitted infection epidemic | Epidemic control | National | Model the effects of resource availability on rate of infection | Frequency-dependent deterministic compartmental model (SIS, recovery rate mediated by resources availability) | – |
| Cruz-Aponte et al. (2011) | Global | Influenza | Flu vaccination campaign during outbreak | National | Develop an accurate model of vaccine stockpiles for epidemic preparedness | Density-dependent deterministic compartmental model (SIR-like model including vaccines supply and numbers vaccinated) | – |
| Curran et al. (2016) | Global | General epidemic outbreak | Surge capacity planning | National | Develop a conceptual framework for integrating big data analytics with simulation, to provide real-time analysis of health system capacity during epidemics | Density-dependent deterministic compartmental model (SEIR) | – |
| Dalgiç et al. (2017) | Local - Seattle, US | Influenza | Flu vaccination campaign during outbreak | National | Compare age-specific vaccination strategies derived from agent-based simulation and from a deterministic compartmental model | Agent-based simulation and density-dependent deterministic compartmental model (SEIR), enhanced with mesh-adaptive direct search (MADS) algorithm to iteratively improve intervention strategies | Cost analysis |
| Ferrer et al. (2014) | Local - France | All-cause ICU visits | Strategies to cope with nurses shortages | Service | Explore impact of management strategies against nurse shortages on pathogen transmission within the ICU | Agent-based simulation | – |
| Hecht and Gandhi (2008) | Global | HIV | AIDS vaccination | National | Model determinants of demand, uptake dynamics and potential revenues from vaccine candidates | Discrete deterministic linear predictive model (vaccinated are a fraction of population in need dynamically estimated based on numbers of susceptibles who have access given constraints) | Cost analysis |
| Hontelez et al. (2016) | Regional - sub-Saharan Africa | HIV | ART scale-up (changing eligibility thresholds) | National | Model resource requirements to achieve ART coverage targets | Agent-based simulation | Cost-effectiveness analysis |
| Krumkamp et al. (2011) | Country - Thailand | Influenza | Epidemic preparedness | Decentralised | Simulate characteristics of an influenza outbreak and identify resource needs and gaps | Density-dependent deterministic compartmental model (SEAIR) | – |
| Langley et al., 2014; Lin et al. (2011) | Country - Tanzania | TB | New diagnostic technologies for parasitic disease | National | Model intervention effects on operational performance of the health system to accurately assess impact and cost-effectiveness | Deterministic compartmental model (SIR-like). Active diseases states of the model are expanded to include pathway from onset to diagnosis and linkage to treatment from operational model | Cost-effectiveness analysis |
| Marks et al. (2017) | Global | Yaws | Eradication campaign (mass azythromycin treatment followed by case finding and targeted treatment) | National | Determine the feasibility and optimal strategy for yaws eradication | Stochastic compartmental model (Markov model with susceptibles and primary, latent and secondary infection) | – |
| Martin et al. (2015a, b) | Local - New York state, US | HIV | Policy change to increase HIV testing and linkage to care | Decentralised | Assess health outcomes and health system resources needs under different policy implementation scenarios | Stock and flow model with transmission rates that vary by HIV infection stage and ART status | – |
| Martin et al. (2011) | Country - UK | HCV | Antiviral treatment among injecting drug users | National | Assess optimal treatment strategy for different economic and policy objectives | Frequency-dependent deterministic compartmental model (susceptible, chronically infected, treated) | Cost analysis |
| McKay et al. (2018) | Local - US | HIV | HIV counselling | Service | Describe the relationship between HR, intervention delivery and health outcomes by simulating different HR availability scenarios and observing effects on the other variables | Agent-based simulation | – |
| Peak et al. (2020) | Country – not specified | SARS-CoV-2 | Epidemic preparedness | National | Compare effectiveness of individual quarantine and active monitoring at reducing effective reproductive number to below 1, under different feasibility scenarios | Density-dependent deterministic compartmental model (bSIS, recovery rate mediated by resources availability) | – |
| Putthasri et al. (2009) | Country - Thailand | Influenza | Modest pandemic mitigation | Decentralised | Define and quantify pandemic preparedness resources at the provincial level and estimate gaps under different scenarios | Density-dependent deterministic compartmental model | – |
| Rudge et al. (2012) | Regional - South-East Asia | Influenza | Epidemic preparedness | Decentralised | Estimate and compare resource gaps and their potential consequences in six countries | Density-dependent deterministic compartmental model (SEAIR) | – |
| Salomon et al. (2006) | Global | TB | Introduction of short-course regiments using new drugs | National | Examine the expected benefits of shorter drug regimens | Deterministic compartmental model (SIR-like model with treatment compartments) | – |
| Sébille and Valleron (1997) | Global | Nosocomial bacterial infection | Staff handwashing compliance to prevent transmission from patient contacts | Service | Develop a simulation of resistant pathogens spread in the hospital unit | Agent-based simulation | – |
| Shattock et al. (2016) | Country - Zambia | HIV | Multiple (model guides priority setting across the HIV cascade) | National | Assess time-varying optimal resource allocations for fixed and variable annual budgets and for various time horizons for measuring outcomes | Frequency-dependent deterministic compartmental model | – |
| Shim et al. (2011) | Country - US | Influenza | Seasonal influenza vaccination | National | Investigate age-dependent optimal vaccine distribution against influenza H1N1 influenza from the individual and population perspectives | Density-dependent deterministic compartmental model (SLIR) | Cost analysis |
| Stenberg et al. (2017) | Global | Health-related SDG targets | Multiple - 187 interventions targeting health-related SDGs and health systems strengthening | National | Estimate resource needs for strengthening health systems to reach universal health coverage in the SDG era | One Health tool, incorporating the interlinked epidemiological reference models for various disease areas (AIM, TIME, LiST) | Cost analysis |
| Stopard et al. (2019) | Country – provinces across Tanzania (Benin, South Africa limited implementation) | HIV | Multiple - behavioural change communication, pre-exposure prophylaxis, voluntary medical male circumcision and universal test-and-treat services | National | To investigate the impact of ‘real-world’ constraints on the resource allocation and possible health gains nationally | Frequency-dependent deterministic compartmental model | Optimisation |
| Verma et al. (2020) | Country – India | SARS-CoV-2 | Treatment | National | Forecast need for hospital resources and assess surge capacity of health system | Density-dependent deterministic compartmental model (modified SEIR model with age-specific mixing patterns) | – |
| Zhang et al. (2020) | Country – not specified | Generic epidemic outbreak | Vaccination | National | Assess optimal vaccination policy in a resource-limited environment | Density dependent deterministic compartmental model (SIR with vaccination compartment) | – |
AIM: AIDS Impact Model; AIDS: Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome; ART: Anti-Retroviral Therapy; CEA: Cost-Effectiveness Analysis; FTE: Full-Time Equivalent; HCV: Hepatitis C Virrus; HR: Human Resources; ICU: Intensive Care Unit; LiST: Lives Saved Tool; QALY: Quality-Adjusted Life-Years; SDG: Sustainable Development Goals.