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. 2021 Jun 1;5(6):e2021GH000427. doi: 10.1029/2021GH000427

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© 2021. The Authors. GeoHealth published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union.

This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non‐commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.

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The variation of $R_{t}$ and herd immunity over time ( $R_{0}$ = 3) in Scenario 1. This simulates a completely natural transmission without any intervention measures under $R_{0}$ = 3, assuming that all agents are equally susceptible, and equally infectious. Red line represents actual time‐dependent variation of $R_{t}$ . Blue columns represents herd immunity. The whole simulation represents 150 days.