Table 2.
Excess mortality associated with COVID-19 and estimated level of exposure in each province. The age structure of each province obtained from the Statistical Centre of Iran was used to calculate the corresponding population-weighted infection fatality rate (IFR). The 95% confidence intervals are shown in parenthesis.
| Provinces | Excess deaths | IFR % | Number of individuals exposed | % Exposed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Azerbaijan | 3.0 K (2.2 K – 3.8 K) | 0.30 (0.28–0.32) | 1.01 M (0.72 M–1.29 M) | 25 (18–32) |
| West Azerbaijan | 2.0 K (1.7 K – 2.3 K) | 0.24 (0.22–0.25) | 0.83 M (0.64 M–1.03 M) | 24 (18–30) |
| Ardabil | 1.3 K (1.0 K – 1.6 K) | 0.26 (0.25–0.28) | 0.49 M (0.36 M–0.61 M) | 37 (28–47) |
| Isfahan | 3.3 K (2.6 K – 4.0 K) | 0.29 (0.27–0.31) | 1.13 M (0.81 M–1.45 M) | 21 (15–27) |
| Alborz | 2.0 K (1.7 K – 2.3 K) | 0.24 (0.22–0.25) | 0.84 M (0.64 M–1.05 M) | 29 (22–36) |
| Ilam | 0.4 K (0.3 K – 0.5 K) | 0.23 (0.22–0.25) | 0.17 M (0.13 M–0.21 M) | 28 (21–34) |
| Bushehr | 0.7 K (0.6 K – 0.7 K) | 0.18 (0.17–0.19) | 0.38 M (0.30 M–0.45 M) | 30 (24–36) |
| Tehran | 8.8 K (7.8 K – 9.7 K) | 0.28 (0.26–0.30) | 3.09 M (2.24 M–3.94 M) | 22 (16–28) |
| South Khorasan | 0.1 K (0.0 K – 0.1 K) | 0.26 (0.24–0.29) | 0.03 M (0.02M–0.04 M) | 4 (3–5) |
| Razavi Khorasan | 4.6 K (3.9 K – 5.4 K) | 0.23 (0.22–0.25) | 2.00 M (1.53 M–2.47 M) | 29 (22–36) |
| North Khorasan | 0.4 K (0.2 K – 0.6 K) | 0.22 (0.21–0.24) | 0.19 M (0.15 M–0.24 M) | 22 (17–27) |
| Khuzestan | 4.5 K (3.9 K – 5.1 K) | 0.19 (0.28–0.20) | 2.33 M (1.85 M–2.81 M) | 47 (37–57) |
| Zanjan | 1.0 K (0.8 K – 1.1 K) | 0.28 (0.26–0.30) | 0.35 M (0.26M–0.44 M) | 32 (23–40) |
| Semnan | 0.3 K (0.2 K – 0.5 K) | 0.27 (0.25–0.29) | 0.12 M (0.09 M–0.16 M) | 16 (12–21) |
| Sistan and Baluchistan | 0.9 K (0.6 K – 1.2 K) | 0.13 (0.12–0.13) | 0.73 M (0.62M–0.84 M) | 24 (20–27) |
| Fars | 1.8 K (1.5 K – 2.2 K) | 0.26 (0.24–0.28) | 0.70 M (0.52M–0.88 M) | 14 (10–17) |
| Qazvin | 1.6 K (1.1 K – 2.1 K) | 0.25 (0.23–0.27) | 0.64 M (0.48M–0.80 M) | 48 (36–60) |
| Qom | 1.6 K (1.4 K – 1.8 K) | 0.21 (0.19–0.22) | 0.79 M (0.62M–0.96 M) | 57 (44–69) |
| Kurdistan | 1.7 K (1.1 K – 2.3 K) | 0.25 (0.23–0.26) | 0.68 M (0.51M–0.85 M) | 41 (31–51) |
| Kerman | 1.5 K (1.0 K – 2.0 K) | 0.22 (0.20–0.23) | 0.72 M (0.56 M–0.87 M) | 21 (13–26) |
| Kermanshah | 1.2 K (0.9 K – 1.5 K) | 0.27 (0.25–0.29) | 0.45 M (0.33 M–0.56 M) | 22 (16–28) |
| Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad | 0.2 K (0.1 K – 0.4 K) | 0.20 (0.19–0.22) | 0.12 M (0.09 M–0.15 M) | 16 (12–19) |
| Lorestan | 1.2 K (0.9 K – 1.4 K) | 0.25 (0.23–0.27) | 0.47 M (0.35 M–0.58 M) | 26 (20–32) |
| Mazandaran | 3.7 K (3.3 K – 4.1 K) | 0.31 (0.29–0.34) | 1.18 M (0.83 M–1.53 M) | 35 (25–45) |
| Markazi | 1.0 K (0.8 K – 1.3 K) | 0.32 (0.29–0.34) | 0.33 M (0.23M–0.42 M) | 22 (16–29) |
| Hormozgan | 1.4 K (1.1 K – 1.6 K) | 0.17 (0.16–0.18) | 0.81 M (0.66M–0.96 M) | 42 (34–49) |
| Hamedan | 1.3 K (0.9 K – 1.7 K) | 0.30 (0.28–0.32) | 0.43 M (0.31 M–0.55 M) | 24 (17–31) |
| Yazd | 0.6 K (0.5 K – 0.8 K) | 0.24 (0.22–0.26) | 0.27 M (0.20 M–0.33 M) | 21 (16–27) |
| Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari | 0.6 K (0.3 K – 0.9 K) | 0.24 (0.22–0.26) | 0.25 M (0.19 M–0.31 M) | 26 (19–32) |
| Golestan | 2.3 K (1.9 K – 2.6 K) | 0.20 (0.19–0.22) | 1.12 M (0.87 M–1.36 M) | 56 (44–69) |
| Gilan (Guilan) | 3.1 K (2.5 K – 3.8 K) | 0.36 (0.34–0.39) | 0.86 M (0.57 M–1.14 M) | 33 (22–44) |
| Nationwide | 58.9 K (46.9 K – 69.5 K) | 0.25 (0.24–0.27) | 23.0 M (17.2M–28.7 M) | 27 (20–34) |
K, thousand; M, million.