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. 2021 Jun 16;12:3674. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-23938-8

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 3 — a Total daily hospital admissions with COVID-19. b Average (over all ages) number of daily contacts in the population. c Effective reproduction number, R_e(t). The average daily contacts and R_e were evaluated once every two weeks. The green vertical lines indicate the estimated mid-point transitions in the age-specific contact rates. The red horizontal line denotes R_e = 1. The hospitalization data are shown as red dots. The black solid lines are the median trajectories estimated from the model. The gray shaded regions correspond to 95% credible intervals.