Fig. 6. Scenarios for relaxation of control measures.

a–d Lifting all measures so that contact rates in the population return to the pre-pandemic level. e–h Partial lifting of measures so that contact rates increase to the level of September–October 2020. i–l Partial lifting of measures so that contact rates increase to the level of June–August 2020. The blue vertical lines indicate the mid-point of the transition (1 April 2020). The gray vertical lines indicate the starting dates for different vaccination phases (Table 1). The red horizontal line denotes R_e = 1. The hospitalization data are shown as red dots. The thick solid lines are the median trajectories estimated from the model. The gray shaded regions correspond to 95% credible intervals.