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. 2021 Jun 16;12:3674. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-23938-8

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 9 — a Baseline (pre-pandemic) contact matrix. b Contact matrix after the introduction of measures in April 2020. c Average number of contacts for a person in a given age group. d Logistic functions describing transitions between contact matrices. Shown are f₀ (blue), f₁ (dark green), f₂ (light green), f₃ (orange), and f₄ (red) based on 50 samples from the posterior distribution.