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. 2021 Jun 17;12:3732. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-23554-6

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 1 — REGEN values come from EPRI’s Integrated Technology Generation Options report²⁶ and expert elicitations. Reference assumptions are shown in blue, and breakthrough (i.e., low cost) assumptions are shown in orange for batteries, solar, and wind. Comparisons are provided with NREL’s 2020 Electricity Annual Technology Baseline (ATB)⁶¹ and BloombergNEF’s “Levelized Cost of Electricity 2H 2020”⁶². Solar costs are expressed in $/kW_AC terms. Battery costs in $/kW terms are shown for a 4-h duration system. Additional assumptions are discussed in the “Methods” section, Supplementary Note 1, and EPRI²³. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.