Figure 2.

a) In the short initial phase of the epidemic, the number of infected individuals growths exponentially in time, which allows to estimate the initial value of the infection rate ($\kappa =0.464{\text{day}}^{-1}$). The curve of the logarithmic derivative $\mathrm{d}\ln n(t)/\mathrm{d}t=\dot{n}(t)/n(t)$ (blue line in panel (b)), which is merely obtained from epidemiological reports without any theoretical assumption, exhibits a linear trend that validates the description based on the logistic model. The carrying capacity $N(=1470$) is obtained from the intersection with the x‐axis. The curve of the time‐dependent infection rate $\kappa =\kappa (t)$ (blue line in panel (c)) deduced by means of Equation (5) suggests a piecewise linear approximation. Noteworthy, the infection rate ${\kappa }_E=0.140{\text{day}}^{-1}$ after lockdown easing is only slightly larger than the value ${\kappa }_L=0.122{\text{day}}^{-1}$ estimated for strict lockdown.