Table 2.
Additional number of deaths at 5 years as per cancer type.
| a) Early-return scenario | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cancer type | Patients during the simulation perioda | Metastatic patients (%) | Expected number of cancer-specific deaths at 5 years | Additional number of cancer-specific deaths at 5 years | Additional cancer mortality rate in year 2020b (%) | Additional cancer mortality rate in year 2021b (%) | Additional cancer mortality rate in year 2022b (%) |
| Sarcomas | 536 | 138 | 235 | 19 | 20.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Cervix | 584 | 50 | 177 | 11 | 15.5 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Liver | 76 | 24 | 63 | 3 | 8.7 | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| Endometrium | 558 | 107 | 135 | 4 | 8.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Acute leukaemia | 355 | NA | 171 | 5 | 7.9 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Head and neck | 960 | 98 | 371 | 12 | 7.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Breast | 3922 | 401 | 728 | 21 | 6.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Bladder | 140 | 71 | 80 | 1 | 3.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Colon | 476 | 245 | 249 | 7 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| Lung | 915 | 479 | 749 | 4 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Melanoma | 1188 | 195 | 643 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Germinal seminoma | 147 | 79 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lymphoma | 419 | NA | 127 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myeloma | 207 | NA | 130 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Neuroendocrine tumours | 128 | NA | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gastroesophageal | 168 | 80 | 126 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ovary | 342 | 214 | 176 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pancreas | 96 | 60 | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Prostate | 893 | 197 | 143 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thyroid | 760 | 126 | 133 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kidney | 95 | 95 | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| All | 13,015 | 2659 | 4639 | 88 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| b) Late-return scenario | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cancer type | Patients during the simulation perioda | Metastatic patients (%) | Expected number of cancer-specific deaths at 5 years | Additional number of cancer-specific deaths at 5 years | Additional cancer mortality rate in year 2020b (%) | Additional cancer mortality rate in year 2021b (%) | Additional cancer mortality rate in year 2022b (%) |
| Sarcomas | 609 | 152 | 248 | 30 | 29.1 | 4.7 | 1.5 |
| Cervix | 620 | 62 | 194 | 15 | 20.7 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Head and neck | 970 | 94 | 375 | 23 | 14.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| Acute leukaemia | 365 | NA | 176 | 9 | 13.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Endometrium | 573 | 111 | 140 | 6 | 12.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| Breast | 4021 | 404 | 740 | 40 | 10.9 | 3.3 | 0.8 |
| Liver | 81 | 26 | 67 | 4 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.2 |
| Bladder | 150 | 79 | 87 | 2 | 5.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| Colon | 485 | 246 | 251 | 7 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.6 |
| Lung | 931 | 503 | 766 | 7 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Melanoma | 1214 | 204 | 656 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Germinal seminoma | 141 | 80 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lymphoma | 430 | 0 | 130 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myeloma | 209 | 0 | 131 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Neuroendocrine tumours | 122 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gastroesophageal | 176 | 81 | 132 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ovary | 342 | 219 | 179 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pancreas | 108 | 64 | 98 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Prostate | 901 | 199 | 144 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thyroid | 780 | 130 | 138 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kidney | 100 | 100 | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| All | 13,328 | 2754 | 4769 | 145 | 6.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
Categories are listed by decreasing order of additional cancer mortality rate in year 2020.
a
Simulation period = from March 2020 until return to normal (mid-May 2022 and June 2022 in Early-Return and Late-Return scenarios respectively).
b
The mortality rate was calculated considering the number of additional deaths occurring in patients who should have received care in the respective year over the theoretical number of deaths in the same population.