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. 2021 Jun 19;34(4):1321–1354. doi: 10.1007/s00148-021-00848-z

Table 7.

Stay-at-home policies, social distancing, and trust — heterogeneous effect — within 30 days of order

Non-essential visits
Poverty Urbanism Education
Below Above Rural Urban Below Above
median median median median
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
After order –0.181*** –0.240*** –0.189* –0.239*** 0.006 –0.215***
(0.040) (0.064) (0.111) (0.040) (0.072) (0.039)
After order –0.113** –0.309*** –0.168 –0.158*** –0.129 –0.109***
× Trust (0.049) (0.078) (0.106) (0.041) (0.090) (0.039)
After order –0.026 0.013 0.021 0.006 –0.046 0.017
× Religion (0.019) (0.025) (0.033) (0.016) (0.029) (0.016)
After order –0.084* –0.050 0.002 –0.013 –0.104 –0.063
× Fear (0.045) (0.073) (0.072) (0.044) (0.070) (0.040)
After order –0.158*** –0.139** 0.064 –0.147*** 0.011 –0.180***
× Democrats (0.034) (0.066) (0.154) (0.032) (0.095) (0.029)
Observations 13,783 9673 3630 19,826 5040 18,416
R-squared 0.622 0.620 0.500 0.631 0.561 0.626

The dependent variable is our index for non-essential visits. The sample is restricted to within 30 days (before and after) of the implementation of a stay-at-home order unless the order in a specific state ends before 30 days. All specifications include day and county fixed effects and a variable for the daily COVID-19-related death rates at the county level. We also control for other implemented policies interacted with the After order dummy: making masks mandatory (county level), school closures, business closure, cancellation of public events, gathering restrictions, closure of public transportation, and international travel control (state level). Columns have restricted subsamples: (1) below and (2) above median poverty; (3) rural (4) urban counties; (5) below and (6) above median education (college or more) Standard errors clustered at the county level. *** p< 0.01; ** p< 0.05; * p< 0.1