Table 2.

Analysis results: increases in pneumococcal disease rates resulting from decreased pneumococcal vaccination in children.

			Relative increase in senior pneumococcal illness rates
Duration of decreased PCV13 use	Absolute decrease in PCV13 use	Increase in childhood IPD (cases per 100,000)	Base case (1:0.5 ratio)*	Alternative case (1:1 ratio)*
1 year	10%	2.0	3.8%	7.6%
	20%	3.9	7.6%	15.1%
	30%	5.9	11.3%	22.7%
	40%	7.9	15.1%	30.2%
	50%	9.8	18.9%	37.8%
2 years	10%	3.9	7.6%	15.1%
	20%	7.9	15.1%	30.2%
	30%	11.8	22.7%	45.3%
	40%	15.7	30.2%	60.5%
	50%	19.7	37.8%	75.6%

PCV13 = 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, IPD = invasive pneumococcal disease.

^*Ratio of increases in pediatric to senior IPD cases resulting from decreased pediatric PCV13 vaccination.