| Upper asymptote |
|
|
|
|
|
| Risk area travel ban |
-1,042.170 (2,369.086) |
-194.506 (685.459) |
123.214 (421.095) |
889.533** (433.221) |
554.648 (941.756) |
| School closure |
-1,069.961 (1,542.001) |
-743.277 (780.132) |
-203.518 (369.106) |
-127.165 (282.339) |
-2,559.618*** (776.876) |
| Gathering ban |
1,628.880 (2,626.511) |
159.257 (901.092) |
-541.432 (470.117) |
-871.245** (400.771) |
-2,004.077*** (751.200) |
| Border closure |
324.431 (688.073) |
656.658* (366.233) |
642.198*** (235.505) |
104.352 (230.547) |
-1,494.998*** (361.433) |
| Business shut-down |
-62.556 (331.834) |
-8.769 (253.904) |
14.403 (190.372) |
37.005 (159.800) |
-604.754*** (230.370) |
| National curfew |
275.546 (577.580) |
262.087 (516.108) |
505.824 (431.389) |
746.151 (478.385) |
2,066.415*** (547.144) |
| Logarithm of population |
21,026.824*** (3,627.763) |
21,404.716*** (3,708.811) |
21,744.965*** (3,811.321) |
22,023.539*** (3,904.511) |
21,500.910*** (4,025.339) |
| Logarithm of daily tests |
-98.021** (42.405) |
-65.582* (38.452) |
-44.977 (33.814) |
-22.118 (30.822) |
7.826 (43.560) |
| Detection & reporting index |
-241.479 (456.792) |
-212.514 (467.037) |
-174.375 (480.095) |
-150.409 (492.146) |
-145.132 (512.093) |
| Rapid response index |
1,565.937** (667.813) |
1,603.567** (683.045) |
1,644.335** (702.025) |
1,703.775** (719.090) |
1,832.518** (747.701) |
| Health system index |
-784.246 (787.584) |
-856.416 (805.118) |
-946.347 (827.521) |
-1,032.826 (847.643) |
-1,166.309 (882.670) |
| Constant |
36,657.613*** (5,760.134) |
37,296.887*** (5,658.121) |
37,803.130*** (5,807.353) |
38,380.807*** (5,949.906) |
45,470.668*** (6,357.926)) |
| Growth rate |
|
|
|
|
|
| Risk area travel ban |
-0.028*** (0.010) |
-0.021*** (0.005) |
-0.026*** (0.004) |
-0.029*** (0.003) |
-0.041*** (0.003) |
| School closure |
0.015* (0.008) |
0.018*** (0.005) |
-0.003 (0.003) |
-0.013*** (0.002) |
-0.019*** (0.001) |
| Gathering ban |
-0.010 (0.013) |
-0.027*** (0.007) |
-0.011*** (0.003) |
-0.008*** (0.002) |
-0.012*** (0.001) |
| Border closure |
-0.055*** (0.007) |
-0.056*** (0.004) |
-0.052*** (0.003) |
-0.039*** (0.002) |
-0.021*** (0.001) |
| Business shut-down |
-0.033*** (0.004) |
-0.030*** (0.002) |
-0.023*** (0.001) |
-0.016*** (0.001) |
-0.011*** (0.001) |
| National curfew |
-0.012*** (0.003) |
-0.009*** (0.002) |
-0.005*** (0.001) |
-0.004*** (0.001) |
-0.003*** (0.001) |
| Logarithm of population |
-0.010*** (0.004) |
-0.009** (0.004) |
-0.008** (0.003) |
-0.008*** (0.003) |
0.005** (0.002) |
| Logarithm of daily tests |
0.002*** (0.000) |
0.002*** (0.000) |
0.002*** (0.000) |
0.002*** (0.000) |
0.001*** (0.000) |
| Detection & reporting index |
-0.000 (0.000) |
-0.000 (0.000) |
-0.000 (0.000) |
-0.000 (0.000) |
0.000 (0.000) |
| Rapid response index |
-0.002*** (0.001) |
-0.001*** (0.001) |
-0.001*** (0.0004) |
-0.001*** (0.000) |
-0.001* (0.000) |
| Health system index |
0.001* (0.001) |
0.001* (0.001) |
0.001* (0.001) |
0.001* (0.000) |
0.001** (0.000) |
| Constant |
0.214*** (0.017) |
0.212*** (0.010) |
0.207*** (0.007) |
0.197*** (0.006) |
0.175*** (0.005) |
| Inflection Point |
|
|
|
|
|
| Risk area travel ban |
1.176 (1.537) |
0.668 (0.728) |
1.519*** (0.418) |
1.944*** (0.307) |
2.180*** (0.246) |
| School closure |
-2.998* (1.683) |
-3.621*** (0.812) |
-0.352 (0.307) |
0.912*** (0.167) |
1.357*** (0.115) |
| Gathering ban |
-5.258 (4.051) |
0.714 (1.427) |
-1.689*** (0.644) |
-1.374*** (0.299) |
-0.027 (0.156) |
| Border closure |
1.885*** (0.684) |
2.924*** (0.397) |
2.957*** (0.261) |
1.914*** (0.161) |
0.208** (0.095) |
| Business shut-down |
0.641 (0.633) |
1.471*** (0.326) |
1.197*** (0.189) |
0.849*** (0.124) |
0.758*** (0.085) |
| National curfew |
-0.553** (0.228) |
-0.848*** (0.164) |
-0.780*** (0.136) |
-0.591*** (0.126) |
0.478*** (0.116) |
| Logarithm of population |
7.087*** (1.301) |
7.204*** (1.285) |
7.382*** (1.268) |
6.949*** (1.198) |
2.332* (1.220) |
| Logarithm of daily tests |
-0.073** (0.037) |
-0.021 (0.033) |
-0.005 (0.029) |
0.061** (0.025) |
-0.060** (0.025) |
| Detection & reporting index |
-0.031 (0.141) |
-0.008 (0.140) |
-0.021 (0.138) |
-0.008 (0.136) |
-0.023 (0.135) |
| Rapid response index |
0.564*** (0.216) |
0.545*** (0.208) |
0.532** (0.207) |
0.539*** (0.202) |
0.652*** (0.203) |
| Health system index |
-0.412* (0.247) |
-0.414* (0.244) |
-0.405* (0.242) |
-0.452* (0.239) |
-0.709*** (0.251) |
| Constant |
55.760*** (4.573) |
50.132*** (2.294) |
48.680*** (1.877) |
48.613*** (1.720) |
55.970*** (1.838) |
| Observations |
6,941 |
6,941 |
6,941 |
6,941 |
6,941 |
| Number of countries/states |
121 |
121 |
121 |
121 |
121 |
