| Upper asymptote |
|
|
|
|
|
| Travel ban only |
-172.445 (737.105) |
84.326 (846.509) |
3,215.602 (2,303.807) |
-362.083 (534.269) |
1,105.825* (612.972) |
| Travel & school & gathering |
-689.856 (769.548) |
-577.639 (533.291) |
603.627 (697.065) |
917.632* (478.995) |
910.566** (386.303) |
| Travel & school & gathering & border |
116.120 (507.022) |
215.202 (425.861) |
972.248 (647.673) |
981.447** (446.496) |
685.172** (347.333) |
| Travel & school & gathering & border & business |
-127.002 (391.341) |
-1.920 (332.866) |
941.108 (641.193) |
1,080.642** (447.188) |
219.610 (340.702) |
| All & curfew |
769.353 (671.282) |
913.491 (635.023) |
1,613.519* (823.718) |
781.397 (842.119) |
-3,031.869** (1,249.503) |
| Other combination |
-45.533 (708.319) |
74.010 (493.255) |
1,017.596 (669.223) |
1,237.000*** (449.209) |
800.549** (347.838) |
| Logarithm of population |
21,569.800*** (3,633.242) |
21,277.077*** (3,692.174) |
21,575.809*** (3,787.008) |
21,832.108*** (3,869.800) |
22,277.647*** (4,004.763) |
| Logarithm of daily tests |
-94.255** (42.233) |
-63.514 (39.207) |
-43.156 (37.221) |
-30.421 (33.928) |
-44.103 (34.168) |
| Detection & reporting index |
-281.663 (453.936) |
-232.347 (465.230) |
-208.670 (478.189) |
-194.511 (490.306) |
-174.566 (509.144) |
| Rapid response index |
1,605.848** (664.017) |
1,603.947** (679.811) |
1,673.248** (698.167) |
1,720.461** (715.397) |
1,758.883** (742.823) |
| Health system index |
-799.056 (781.596) |
-843.626 (802.443) |
-937.949 (824.894) |
-1,018.290 (844.599) |
-1,096.576 (877.763) |
| Constant |
37,005.182*** (5,517.968) |
37,163.159*** (5,631.949) |
37,005.292*** (5,809.224) |
37,729.696*** (5,930.052) |
39,567.349*** (6,148.860) |
| Growth rate |
|
|
|
|
|
| Travel ban only |
0.001 (0.083) |
0.000 (0.048) |
-0.020 (0.014) |
0.085*** (0.014) |
-0.008*** (0.003) |
| Travel & school & gathering |
0.003 (0.032) |
0.013 (0.017) |
-0.024*** (0.008) |
-0.045*** (0.004) |
-0.059*** (0.002) |
| Travel & school & gathering & border |
-0.111*** (0.023) |
-0.103*** (0.011) |
-0.093*** (0.006) |
-0.083*** (0.003) |
-0.071*** (0.002) |
| Travel & school & gathering & border & business |
-0.144*** (0.023) |
-0.132*** (0.011) |
-0.117*** (0.006) |
-0.100*** (0.003) |
-0.085*** (0.002) |
| All & curfew |
-0.175*** (0.024) |
-0.164*** (0.012) |
-0.144*** (0.006) |
-0.125*** (0.004) |
-0.107*** (0.002) |
| Other combination |
-0.080*** (0.022) |
-0.072*** (0.011) |
-0.066*** (0.006) |
-0.059*** (0.003) |
-0.054*** (0.002) |
| Logarithm of population |
-0.009** (0.004) |
-0.007** (0.003) |
-0.005* (0.003) |
-0.004 (0.003) |
-0.002 (0.003) |
| Logarithm of daily tests |
0.001*** (0.000) |
0.002*** (0.000) |
0.001*** (0.000) |
0.002*** (0.000) |
0.001*** (0.000) |
| Detection & reporting index |
-0.000 (0.000) |
-0.000 (0.000) |
-0.000 (0.000) |
-0.000 (0.000) |
-0.000 (0.000) |
| Rapid response index |
-0.002*** (0.001) |
-0.002*** (0.000) |
-0.001*** (0.000) |
-0.001*** (0.000) |
-0.001** (0.000) |
| Health system index |
0.001 (0.001) |
0.001 (0.001) |
0.001 (0.001) |
0.001 (0.000) |
0.001 (0.001) |
| Constant |
0.249*** (0.023) |
0.231*** (0.012) |
0.211*** (0.007) |
0.189*** (0.005) |
0.170*** (0.004) |
| Inflection Point |
|
|
|
|
|
| Travel ban only |
4.153 (7.756) |
4.942 (5.022) |
6.860*** (1.904) |
-2.702*** (0.767) |
1.924*** (0.347) |
| Travel & school & gathering |
2.006 (3.772) |
0.379 (1.746) |
2.528*** (0.896) |
3.737*** (0.501) |
4.529*** (0.277) |
| Travel & school & gathering & border |
9.291*** (3.531) |
7.789*** (1.626) |
6.841*** (0.829) |
5.472*** (0.462) |
4.079*** (0.259) |
| Travel & school & gathering & border & business |
9.196*** (3.541) |
8.333*** (1.636) |
7.888*** (0.840) |
6.499*** (0.472) |
5.034*** (0.265) |
| All & curfew |
14.530*** (3.575) |
13.120*** (1.664) |
11.403*** (0.858) |
9.340*** (0.486) |
7.460*** (0.278) |
| Other combination |
7.805** (3.529) |
6.878*** (1.624) |
6.420*** (0.825) |
5.524*** (0.456) |
4.882*** (0.250) |
| Logarithm of population |
7.656*** (1.361) |
7.166*** (1.354) |
6.314*** (1.187) |
5.827*** (1.170) |
5.659*** (1.189) |
| Logarithm of daily tests |
-0.102*** (0.037) |
-0.026 (0.034) |
-0.007 (0.030) |
0.043* (0.026) |
-0.113*** (0.025) |
| Detection & reporting index |
-0.065 (0.144) |
-0.040 (0.143) |
-0.062 (0.138) |
-0.070 (0.139) |
-0.065 (0.134) |
| Rapid response index |
0.577** (0.216) |
0.550** (0.216) |
0.556*** (0.210) |
0.552*** (0.208) |
0.596*** (0.203) |
| Health system index |
0.610*** (0.225) |
0.551** (0.217) |
0.558*** (0.210) |
-0.435* (0.247) |
0.628*** (0.202) |
| Constant |
41.658*** (3.928) |
43.280*** (2.380) |
44.758*** (1.901) |
46.832*** (1.780) |
49.983*** (1.711) |
| Observations |
6,941 |
6,941 |
6,941 |
6,941 |
6,941 |
| Number of countries/states |
121 |
121 |
121 |
121 |
121 |
