Fig. 5. Mediation analyses testing for a mediating role of preference uncertainty for the relationship of development with social susceptibility.

a Mediation analysis for social susceptibility (i.e. preference shift measured in our delay discounting task) as predicted from age and mediated by preference uncertainty at T1. Age predicted preference uncertainty (path a). The mediator (preference uncertainty) predicted preference shift (path b, controlled for the age effect on preference uncertainty). Importantly, the mediation effect was significant (path ab). The direct path c’, namely the age effect on preference shift after accounting for the mediation, was not significant. The proportion of total variance accounted for by the mediation effect was significant. Thus, the age effect on social susceptibility at baseline was accounted for by preference uncertainty. b In line with our assumption that development of social susceptibility is accounted for by development of preference uncertainty, the bivariate latent change score model not only showed a significant covariation of preference uncertainty with social susceptibility at T1, but also significant covariation of the rate of longitudinal change in both domains. The full set of parameter estimates is included in Supplementary Information Table 2. n.s. not significant, T1 measurement time point 1, baseline assessment; T2 measurement time point 2, follow-up assessment after ~1–5 years.; ** denotes p < 0.001 Source data are provided as a Source Data file.