. 2021 Jun 12;15:100845. doi: 10.1016/j.ssmph.2021.100845

Table 2.

Multilevel negative binomial regression predicting new deaths per month with population offset by county-level sociodemographic characteristics (N = 3,123).

	Model 1		Model 2		Model 3
Variable	MRR	95% Confident Interval	MRR	95% Confident Interval	MRR	95% Confident Interval
Time Period
“First” April and May (ref)
“Second” June and July	0.870^a	[0.828,0.915]	0.852^a	[0.810,0.896]	0.862^a	[0.819,0.907]
“Third” August - October	1.849^a	[1.764,1.939]	1.852^a	[1.767,1.942]	1.854^a	[1.767,1.945]
% Overcrowded Households	1.148^a	[1.096,1.203]	1.037	[0.981,1.096]	1.087^b	[1.025,1.154]
Time Period^c % Overcrowded Households
“First” April and May (ref)
“Second” June and July			1.276^a	[1.214,1.342]	1.197^a	[1.130,1.269]
“Third” August - October			1.088^a	[1.038,1.140]	1.009	[0.957,1.063]
% Families Below the Poverty Line	1.040	[0.985,1.098]	1.038	[0.983,1.096]	0.837^a	[0.784,0.895]
Time Period^c % Families Below the Poverty Line
“First” April and May (ref)
“Second” June and July					1.287^a	[1.220,1.357]
“Third” August - October					1.318^a	[1.254,1.386]
% Overcrowded Households^c % Families Below the Poverty Line					1.032	[0.998,1.067]
Time Period^c % Overcrowded Households^c % Families Below the Poverty Line
“First” April and May (ref)
“Second” June and July					0.965	[0.930,1.002]
“Third” August - October					0.974	[0.940,1.009]
% non-Hispanic Black	1.346^a	[1.283,1.413]	1.349^a	[1.285,1.416]	1.364^a	[1.299,1.432]
% Hispanic	1.290^a	[1.228,1.354]	1.285^a	[1.223,1.349]	1.280^a	[1.219,1.345]
% Male	0.936^a	[0.905,0.969]	0.936^a	[0.905,0.969]	0.932^a	[0.901,0.965]
% 65 y.o. +	1.067^b	[1.026,1.109]	1.067^b	[1.026,1.110]	1.070^a	[1.029,1.112]
% Married	1.048	[0.998,1.101]	1.047	[0.997,1.100]	1.038	[0.988,1.091]
% College Degree or higher	1.043	[0.995,1.094]	1.044	[0.996,1.095]	1.028	[0.980,1.078]
% Uninsured	0.997	[0.945,1.052]	0.995	[0.943,1.050]	0.992	[0.940,1.047]
Logged AADR	1.165^a	[1.103,1.231]	1.164^a	[1.102,1.230]	1.159^a	[1.097,1.224]
Population Density	1.011	[0.964,1.059]	1.010	[0.964,1.058]	1.008	[0.962,1.057]
Cumulative COVID-19 Deaths in Rest of State	0.875	[0.674,1.136]	0.831	[0.624,1.108]	0.851	[0.649,1.116]
Governor's Political Affiliation (2020)
Democrat (ref.)
Republican	1.098	[0.721,1.670]	1.076	[0.698,1.659]	1.090	[0.718,1.655]
Alpha	1.029	[0.996, 1.064]	1.021	[0.987, 1.055]	1.005	[0.972, 1.039]
BIC	88260.94	88182.18	88098.85

Note: AADR = Age-Adjusted Death Rate (2014–2018).

p < .001.

p < .01.

p < .05.