Table 2.

Model parameter values, data sources and references.

parameter		value							Source
distribution of generation times (days)		1.3 + Weibull (scale = 5.67, shape = 2.83)							[17,18]
basic reproduction number		R0 = 2.5							assumed
relative infectiousness of subclinical cases		csub = 0.5							[19,20]
relative onward transmission from isolated or quarantined cases		cisol = 0							perfect isolation and quarantine assumed
proportion of subclinical infections		psub = 0.33							[20]
relative test sensitivity for subclinical infections		ptestsubclin = 0.65							[21]
household secondary attack rate		SARhome = 0.2 (other values simulated in figure 1b)							[12]
time from testing to return of test result		ttest = 1 day							estimated
test sensitivity (probability of an infected individual testing positive) as a function of the number of days (0–38) since infection. Sensitivity is assumed to be zero more than 38 days after infection.	0	1	2	3	4	5	6		[3]
	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.04	0.33	0.62	0.75
	7	8	9	10	11	12	13
	0.79	0.80	0.79	0.76	0.72	0.68	0.64
	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
	0.60	0.56	0.52	0.48	0.44	0.40	0.37
	21	22	23	24	25	26	27
	0.34	0.32	0.30	0.28	0.26	0.24	0.22
	28	29	30	31	32	33	34
	0.20	0.18	0.16	0.14	0.12	0.10	0.08
	35	36	37	38
	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00
proportion of people living in a household of size 1 to 8	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	[4]
	17%	36%	19%	17%	7%	3%	0.7%	0.6%