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. 2021 Jun 23;150:111200. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2021.111200

Fig. 3.

Fig. 3

For two arbitrarily chosen realisations of model parameters we show the numbers of susceptible individuals, infected individuals, recovered individuals, deceased individuals, where the cause of death is either COVID-19 or another disease and individuals in ICU. In (a).3 - (b).3 we show the ICU occupancy and in (a).4 - (b).4 the deaths per day. It can be seen how during the peak of the pandemic the number of ICU patients non related to COVID-19 is highly reduced (due to the massive number of COVID-19 patients) but the deaths non related to COVID-19 are also increased (because untreated sick people die). Both (a).3 and (b).3 visually show two realisations where the healthcare system collapses (full capacity is reached). Both realisation are for cluster size = 4, the first having p1=0.4, p2=0.65 and the second p1=0.7, p2=0.7. It is clear how a higher probability of mobility p1 results in much more severe daily deaths.