Table 2. Worksheet 1A from the Adaptation Design Tool.

A1	A2	A3	A4	A5	A6	A7
Management action number	Existing management action	Target stressor(s)	Climate change effects on stressor(s): direction, magnitude, mechanism, uncertainty	Timing of climate change effects	Implications for effectiveness metrics and how to measure them	Notes
7	Use flow diversion structures and flow reduction practices (e.g., water bars, vetiver and rock check dams, culverts) to manage sediment from coffee plantation dirt roads. Use water conveyance practices (e.g., water bars, culverts) to manage sediment from coffee plantation dirt roads NOTE: Some flow diversion practices, and road stabilization measures are included with water conveyance practices because implementing them together increases their effectiveness.	Terrestrial sediment	• Storms may become more intense, leading to precipitation events that may erode dirt roads faster, particularly on steep slopes. The percent increases in erosion and runoff will likely be greater than the percent increase in precipitation. High magnitude, low uncertainty. • The rainfall threshold for erosion of dirt roads appears to be around 0.1 cm, with dirt released within 1–2 minutes (Ramos-Scharrón and Thomaz 2016). This threshold may be reached during a higher proportion of storms. High magnitude, low uncertainty. • Stormwater plumes may extend further into the ocean, impacting more coral reefs. High magnitude, low uncertainty. • Storms of sufficient intensity to release levels of sediment exceeding reefs’ tolerance may occur more frequently. High magnitude, medium uncertainty. • Increased resuspension of sediment in coastal waters in between storms due to stronger waves. High magnitude, medium uncertainty. • Road erosion may become more intermittent due to longer periods of drought punctuated by larger storms. More intermittent storms could themselves cause larger loads per event because drier soil will erode more easily. On the other hand, hard pans could form on roads during dry periods, causing initial rain to run off without sediment. Medium magnitude, medium uncertainty. • There may be shifts in eroded sediment particle sizes due to larger storms, potentially including more clay particles which stay suspended in water longer and chronically expose reefs to sediment. Or, larger particles may be increased. Low magnitude, high uncertainty.	• Increasingly violent storms are already occurring. • Storm intensity will likely continue to increase over the coming decades. • Prolonged dry periods are already occurring.	Effectiveness metrics: Targeted percent reduction of sediment loads originating from dirt roads in coffee plantations. Reduction in number of roads that need rebuilding or significant management after storms. Amount of sediment resuspension. Frequency of roads requiring regrading. Effective lifespan of conveyance structures. Implications for effectiveness metrics: Loads following rain events will need to be reduced by a larger percentage to keep sediment from crossing reefs’ sediment tolerance thresholds. Because these may be crossed more often due to increased storm intensities, the impact of acute sediment loads may increase relative to the impact of chronic loads. Sediment resuspension will occur more often, potentially contributing more to the sediment exposure of reefs. Road regrading will be necessary more often due to increased frequency of larger storms. Lifespan of conveyance structures will decrease. Implications for how to measure effectiveness metrics: Water quality monitoring stations should be located at the site of management practices and down-channel of dirt roads with and without altered water management strategies (for comparison). It will become more important to have long-term sampling that reflects extreme storms (including sampling during storms). Ideally, water flow around roads would be monitored during some storms to see how the management practices are working. Sampling will likely need to be able to record a broader range of loads. With increasing sediment resuspension, more effort will have to be made to measure resuspension during and after storms. If road regrading is required often enough due to more frequent larger storms, it will not be an effective success metric. Perhaps the extent of road regrading needed will be more informative.	• How much are 2-, 5-, 10-, and 25-year storms expected to change by 2050? • What is the total sediment runoff reduction target for reefs? • How much of a reduction in runoff from use of road maintenance practices is necessary to reduce runoff to levels that reefs can tolerate in conjunction with other management measures? • How do road maintenance measures interact with other mountain erosion measures (e.g., shade-grown coffee) to reduce sediment? • Roads really need to be monitored during storms to detect locations and timing of most severe sediment runoff. • No management measures will protect dirt roads from large storms. There is a limit on how large a storm event dirt roads can be designed to handle. That limit may be reached more often under climate change. • Residence times of sediment particles around reefs outside Guánica Bay could determine the relative contribution to coral exposure of sediment resuspension vs. new sediment. • How will climate change affect the size of sediment particles mobilized? • Information on changes in runoff coefficients are necessary. • Pattern of sediment pulses on coffee plantation dirt roads under climate change is very important and needs exploration. •
12 14	First and second phases: Collect corals and establish aquarium-based coral nurseries. Second phase only: Outplant corals on reefs around Gilligan’s Island to protect the coastline.	Coral loss from: • Warmer ocean water • Lower pH ocean water • Terrestrial sediment and nutrients • Sea level rise • Storm damage (especially for acroporids) • Anchor damage • Spills from industrial facilities • Large vessel traffic, and resulting oil spills and sediment resuspension • Stormwater from urbanized areas • Ongoing development around the Bay • Nutrients from wastewater: septic systems, and bad connections to municipal systems	• Warmer waters may increase bleaching episodes and disease outbreaks. High magnitude, low uncertainty. • Storms may become more intense, leading to precipitation events with more runoff carrying sediment and nutrients from land. The percent increases in erosion and runoff will likely be greater than the percent increase in precipitation. High magnitude, low uncertainty. • Stormwater plumes may extend further into the ocean, impacting more coral reefs. High magnitude, low uncertainty. • Sediment and nutrient runoff may be exacerbated by warmer air temperatures that are expected to render soils more erosion-prone. Medium magnitude, low uncertainty. • Storms of sufficient intensity to release levels of sediment and nutrients exceeding reefs’ tolerance may occur more frequently. High magnitude, medium uncertainty. • Sea level rise may occur faster than reef accretion, leading to “sinking reefs”. Medium magnitude, low uncertainty. • Ocean acidification could decrease successful recruitment if corals cannot find settlement sites (e.g., due to altered chemosensory abilities) or calcify (due to acidic conditions). It may also reduce existing colonies’ growth rates. High magnitude, medium-high uncertainty. • Sediment and nutrient delivery may become more intermittent due to increased drought periods. Medium magnitude, medium uncertainty. • Ocean acidification could decrease reproduction because colonies will need to put extra energy into skeletal growth. High magnitude, medium uncertainty.	• Temperature effects have already occurred, with increasing magnitude through mid-century. • Increasingly violent storms are already occurring. • Storm intensity will likely continue to increase over the coming decades. • Acidification beyond coral optima may have already occurred for some taxa and is expected to worsen.	Effectiveness metrics: Number of colonies in nurseries, number of climate-tolerant genotypes in nurseries, and colony survival in nurseries. Survival and growth rates of outplanted colonies, considering maintenance of genotypic and phenotypic diversity. Use of outplanted colonies by other organisms. Sexual and asexual reproduction of colonies. Reduction in storm surge reaching coast. Reduction in coastal storm damage. Implications for effectiveness metrics: Survival rates over longer time periods (multiple years) may decrease due to episodic events, like storms or bleaching events. Growth rates may decrease and time until sexually reproductive may increase due to acidification. Settlement of other calcifying organisms among corals may be impacted by climate change, as well. Storm surge will become more extreme. Implications for how to measure effectiveness metrics: Monitor survival for longer after outplanting because of more episodic climate change-associated events, like bleaching or storms. Monitor longer for reproduction because of delayed sexual maturity. Survival surveys should occur immediately after relevant stressor events to characterize responses of outplants, requiring rapid-response monitoring.	• What coral species are best to use? • Is a certain level of rugosity of outplants desirable for maximum wave reduction? • Some micro-fragging is being used to “re-sheet” dead boulder colonies, like Orbicella. • Since this action is so closely related to the nursery action, it will be important to adjust nursery rearing practices in response to outplanting results. • To what extent will larger storms with longer droughts between increase the delivery of legacy PCBs to reefs?

This covers climate change’s effects on stressors. First phase text is in non-italics. Material added during the second phase is in italics. Text is condensed and edited for this table, and actions are numbered is as in Table 1. The full worksheets from the first and second phases, including column heading descriptions, are in S3 and S4 Tables, respectively. For condensed summaries of the initial phase, refer to S5 Table.