Fig. 13.

The Shannon entropy (H) per microstate transition shows that participants disagree on many of the signs of the relative free energy predictions. Microstates with entropy values greater than 0 reflect increasing disagreement in the predicted sign. Microstates with an entropy of 0 are not shown here, but indicate that methods made predictions which had the same sign for the free energy change associated with a particular transition. About 44% of all microstates predictions disagreed with one another based on the sign, and the rest agreed. Roughly 5% of microstates strongly disagreed on the sign of predictions—meaning that predicted relative free energies were fairly evenly split between positive, neutral, and negative values. This indicates that these transitions were particularly challenging