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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2021 Dec 1.
Published in final edited form as: Cancer Prev Res (Phila). 2021 Mar 5;14(6):627–634. doi: 10.1158/1940-6207.CAPR-20-0437

TABLE 2:

Total number of German women in each age group, percent in risk stratum and number of predicted breast cancer (BC) cases within one year of risk assessment estimated from the DEGS survey and the BCmod breast cancer risk prediction model. The number needed to screen (NNS) derived as the ratio of the total count and the number of expected BC cases. (CI= confidence interval)

Age 40–44 years Age 45–49 years Age 50–69 years
(95% CI) (95% CI) (95% CI)
total population

Total count$ 3,261,000 3,461,000 10,498,000
Number of BC cases expected within 1 year from risk assessment 3,400 5,500 35,900*
NNS 953 631 292

5-year BC risk <0.8%

Total count$ 2,871,000 (2,399,498 – 3,343,261) 1,494,000 (1,157,169 – 1,831,468) 113,000 (38,486 – 187,825)
Percent 88% (79 – 97) 43% (35 – 51) 1% (0 – 2)
Number of BC cases expected within 1 year from risk assessment 2,800 (2,355 – 3,268) 1,900 (1,508 – 2,365) 160 (53 – 269)
NNS 1,021 772 703

5-year BC risk 0.8%- 1.7%

Total count$ 389,000 (93,249 – 685,016) 1,927,000 (1,535,413 – 2,318,348) 5,624,000 (5,005,871 – 6,241,407)
Percent 12% (3 – 21) 56% (47 – 64) 54% (49 – 58)
Number of BC cases expected within 1 year from risk assessment 600 (158 – 1,064) 3,400 (2,694 – 4,120) 13,800 (12,309 – 15,280)
NNS 637 566 408

5-year BC risk >1.7%

Total count$ 0 39,000 (0 – 145,620) 4,761,000 (4,150,573 – 5,371,914)
Percent 0% 1% (0 – 4) 45% (41– 50)
Number of BC cases expected within 1 year from risk assessment 0 140 (0 – 510) 22,000 (19,261 – 24,709)
NNS na§ 282 217
$

estimated from weighted survey data

*

differences due to rounding

§

no data available for estimation