TABLE 2:
Total number of German women in each age group, percent in risk stratum and number of predicted breast cancer (BC) cases within one year of risk assessment estimated from the DEGS survey and the BCmod breast cancer risk prediction model. The number needed to screen (NNS) derived as the ratio of the total count and the number of expected BC cases. (CI= confidence interval)
| Age 40–44 years | Age 45–49 years | Age 50–69 years | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (95% CI) | (95% CI) | (95% CI) | ||||
| total population | ||||||
| Total count$ | 3,261,000 | 3,461,000 | 10,498,000 | |||
| Number of BC cases expected within 1 year from risk assessment | 3,400 | 5,500 | 35,900* | |||
| NNS | 953 | 631 | 292 | |||
| 5-year BC risk <0.8% | ||||||
| Total count$ | 2,871,000 | (2,399,498 – 3,343,261) | 1,494,000 | (1,157,169 – 1,831,468) | 113,000 | (38,486 – 187,825) |
| Percent | 88% | (79 – 97) | 43% | (35 – 51) | 1% | (0 – 2) |
| Number of BC cases expected within 1 year from risk assessment | 2,800 | (2,355 – 3,268) | 1,900 | (1,508 – 2,365) | 160 | (53 – 269) |
| NNS | 1,021 | 772 | 703 | |||
| 5-year BC risk 0.8%- 1.7% | ||||||
| Total count$ | 389,000 | (93,249 – 685,016) | 1,927,000 | (1,535,413 – 2,318,348) | 5,624,000 | (5,005,871 – 6,241,407) |
| Percent | 12% | (3 – 21) | 56% | (47 – 64) | 54% | (49 – 58) |
| Number of BC cases expected within 1 year from risk assessment | 600 | (158 – 1,064) | 3,400 | (2,694 – 4,120) | 13,800 | (12,309 – 15,280) |
| NNS | 637 | 566 | 408 | |||
| 5-year BC risk >1.7% | ||||||
| Total count$ | 0 | 39,000 | (0 – 145,620) | 4,761,000 | (4,150,573 – 5,371,914) | |
| Percent | 0% | 1% | (0 – 4) | 45% | (41– 50) | |
| Number of BC cases expected within 1 year from risk assessment | 0 | 140 | (0 – 510) | 22,000 | (19,261 – 24,709) | |
| NNS | na§ | 282 | 217 | |||
$
estimated from weighted survey data
*
differences due to rounding
§
no data available for estimation