Table 2.

The main bases for probabilistic theories, and whether (+) or not (-) they and the model theory account correctly for phenomena concerning conditionals. All theoretical bases in the table accept the Equation that p(if A then C) = p(C|A) as a norm

	1. Predicts conjunctive errors in estimates of the Equation	2. Has an algorithm simulating mental processes	3. Applies to creation of permissions and obligations	4. Free of the ‘paradox’ that truth of if A then C implies A	5. Predicts inferences of the sort: If A or B then it follows that A	6. Predicts subadditive JPDs	7. Predicts explanations in defeasible reasoning	8. Has no automatic elicitation of probability
Ramsey’s test	+*	-	-	+	-	-	-	+
Partial truth table	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	+
Jeffrey table for probabilities	-	-	-	+	-	-	-	-
Adams’ probabilistic logic	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
de Finetti’s coherence and system P	-	-	-	-	-	-	+	-
Model theory of default possibilities	+	+	+	+	+	+	+	+

* Evans et al. (2003) and Oberauer and Wilhelm (2003) offer explanations of conjunctive errors in estimates of the Equation (see text)