Table 3.

The models having the lowest AIC values for three response variables (the reported cases, the daily growth rate, and the basic reproduction number), with four predictors (L-lockdown, T-testing, I-isolation, and Q- quarantine) taken 1, 2, 3, and 4 at a time. The bold-face indicates the best model identified according to AIC values for each province and the whole country.

	Reported cases		Growth rate		$R_t$
	Predictors	AIC	predictors	AIC	Predictors	AIC
Nepal	I	2550	I	− 502	L	− 29.41
	T, I	2527	T, Q	− 529.21	L,T	− 111.11
	L, T, I	2481	T, I, Q	− 550.9	L, T, I	− 166.41
	L, T, I, Q	2458	L, T, I, Q	− 553.84	L, T, I, Q	− 184.97
Province 1	L	1755	I	− 374.6	T	62.98
	L, I	1713	I, Q	− 374.9	L, T	42.25
	L, T, I	1695	L, T, Q	− 379.8	T, I, Q	33.25
	L, T, I, Q	1691	L, T, I, Q	− 378.4	L, T, I, Q	30.86
Province 2	L	2083	I	− 392.1	L	13.37
	L, Q	2051	I, Q	− 394.3	L, T	− 43.8
	L, T, Q	2038	T, I, Q	− 396.4	L, T, Q	− 49.07
	L, T, I, Q	2039	L, T, I, Q	− 394.8	L, T, I, Q	− 47.87
Province 3	I	2351	Q	− 312.4	L	117.6
	L, I	2248	T, Q	− 324.6	L, Q	101.7
	L, I, Q	2250	T, I, Q	− 328	L, I, Q	102.4
	L, T, I, Q	2250	L, T, I, Q	− 327.0	L, T, I, Q	101.7
Province 4	Q	1685	L	− 231.3	L	29.79
	I, Q	1648	L, Q	− 239.6	L, Q	31.36
	T, I, Q	1646	L, I, Q	− 248.4	L, I, Q	33.29
	L, T, I, Q	1648	L, T, I, Q	− 248.4	L, T, I, Q	34.90
Province 5	I	1922	T	− 351.5	L	6.611
	I, Q	1907	T, Q	− 400.6	L, T	− 16.33
	L, I, Q	1897	T, I, Q	− 405.7	L, T, I	− 49.15
	L, T, I, Q	1880	L, T, I, Q	− 405.5	L, T, I, Q	− 47.16
Province 6	Q	1670	Q	− 264.4	Q	13.2
	I, Q	1630	T, Q	− 273.3	L, Q	8.619
	L, I, Q	1628	T, I, Q	− 272.2	L, I, Q	7.757
	L, T, I, Q	1626	L, T, I, Q	− 271.5	L, T, I, Q	9.722
Province 7	I	1969	Q	− 243.3	L	95.66
	I, Q	1963	I, Q	− 251.8	L, I	84.98
	T, I, Q	1958	L, T, Q	− 261	L, T, I	83.88
	L, T, I, Q	1956	L, T, I, Q	− 259.9	L, T, I, Q	83.32