Table 4.

Regression Coefficients of the best model for the reported cases, the daily growth rate and the effective reproduction number, $R_t$, in Nepal and its provinces.

Coefficients	${\beta }_0$	${\beta }_L$	${\beta }_T$	${\beta }_I$	${\beta }_Q$
Region	Reported Cases
Nepal	376.27 (273.37, 479.18)	-428.43 (-520.76, -336.10)	-0.0128 (-0.015, -0.010)	0.131 (0.114, 0.148)	0.0029 (0.002, 0.004)
Province 1	42.6580 (26.081, 59.235)	-34.2663 (-48.027, -20.505)	0.0194 (0.012, 0.027)	0.0863 (0.057, 0.126)	-0.011 (-0.020, -0.002)
Province 2	114.7375 (93.179, 136.296)	-123.1147 (-144.688, -101.541)	-0.0078 (-0.012, -0.004)	-	0.0115 (0.008, 0.015)
Province 3	210.7311 (178.294, 243.168)	-222.6894 (-260.001, -185.377)		0.3595 ( 0.320, 0.399)
Province 4	-13.9620 (-23.237, -4.687)		0.0437 ( 0.000 0.087)	0.0503 (0.035, 0.066)	0.0121 (0.006, 0.018)
Province 5	30.7291 (11.365, 50.093)	-53.4800 (-72.147, -34.813)	-0.0038 (-0.005, -0.002)	0.0798 (0.065 , 0.094)	0.0029 (0.002 , 0.004)
Province 6	5.1897 (-3.371, 13.751)	-10.1369 ( -18.158, -2.116)	-0.0026 (-0.005, -3.61e-05p)	0.0688 (0.042, 0.095)	0.0033 (0.003, 0.004)
Province 7	-9.3865 (-27.942 , 9.169)	19.5248 (0.093, 38.957)	-0.0339 (-0.055, -0.013)	0.0504 (0.033, 0.068)	0.0007 ( 6.75e-05, 0.001)
	Growth Rate
Nepal	0.0826 ( 0.053, 0.1120	-0.0090 (-0.035, 0.017)	-2.172e-06 (-2.92E-06, -1.42e-06)	-9.502e-06 (-1.44e-05, -4.64e-06)	9.477e-07 (6.24e-07, 1.27e-06)
Province 1	-0.0557 ( -0.118, 0.007)	-0.0685 (-0.113, -0.024)	-3.036e-05 (-5.18e-05, -8.96e-06)		9.847e-05 (6.03e-05, 0)
Province 2	0.0828 (0.056, 0.109)		-4.601e-06 ( -9.12e-06, -8.01e-08)	-5.882e-05 (-7.77e-05, -4e-05)	5.502e-06 (1.72e-06, 9.28e-06)
Province 3	0.0125 (-0.026, 0.051)		-9.507e-06 (-1.39e-05, -5.11e-06)	-3.467e-05 (-6.42e-05, -5.17e-06)	7.912e-0 (4.19e-05 0.000)
Province 4	0.3820 (0.222, 0.542)	0.1254 ( 0.090, 0.161)		0.0001 (4.55e-05, 0.000)	-0.0002 (-0.0003,-0.0001)
Province 5	0.0701 (0.034, 0.106)		( -1.24e-05, -8.18e-06) -1.029e-05	-3.144e-05 (-5.49e-05, -7.99e-06)	3.623e-06 (2.41e-06, 4.83e-06)
Province 6	0.0099 (-0.027 , 0.047)		-2.162e-05 (-3.45e-05, -8.77e-06)		1.544e-05 (1.27e-05, 1.82e-05)
Province 7	-0.0297 (-0.064, 0.005)	0.0767 ( 0.036, 0.117)	-3.93e-05 (-6.14e-05, -1.72e-05)		4.208e-06 (2.59e-06, 5.83e-06)
	Effective Reproduction Number $R_t$
Nepal	0.6356 (0.561, 0.710)	-0.2894 (-0.355, -0.223)	1.123e-05 (9.32e-06, 1.31e-05)	5.583e-05 (4.34e-05, 6.82e-05)	-1.923e-06 (-2.75e-06, -1.1e-06)
Province 1	1.2529 (0.905, 1.67)	-0.1808 (-0.353, -0.009)	0.0003 ( 0.0002, 0.0004)	-0.0009 (-0.001, -0.0008)	-0.0004 (-0.001, -0.0002)
Province 2	0.8816 (0.808, 0.955)	-0.4211 (-0.495, -0.347)	5.083e-05 (3.8e-05, 6.36e-05)		-1.537e-05 (-2.66e-05, -4.1e-06)
Province 3	0.7627 ( 0.538, 0.987)	-0.5307 (-0.653, -0.408)			0.0004 (0.000, 0.001)
Province 4	1.0735 (1.009, 1.138)	-0.3445 (-0.438, -0.251)
Province 5	0.6703 (0.554, 0.787)	-0.4866 (-0.564, -0.409)	3.182e-05 (2.38e-05, 3.99e-05)	0.0003 (0.0002,0.0004)
Province 6	1.2430 (1.113, 1.373)	-0.1413 (-0.257, -0.025)		-0.0004 (-0.001, 6.66e-05)	-4.739e-05 (-5.95e-05, -3.53e-05)
Province 7	0.8505 ( 0.676, 1.025)	-0.2037 ( -0.373, -0.035)	-0.0001 (-0.000 , 1.36e-05)	0.0002 (0.0001, 0.0003)	-5.261e-06 (-1.19e-05, 1.36e-06)