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. 2021 Jun 28;21:1239. doi: 10.1186/s12889-021-11236-3

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.

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Fig. 2 — Estimated COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents prevented by social distancing policies within 3 weeks. Notes: Figure generated using Stata 16.0 to present results of the authors’ analysis of New York Times COVID-19 US data base. Cumulative daily COVID-19 cases (January 21 to May 7, 2020) were estimated using a generalized linear model with a negative binomial distribution and a log link and offset to account for state population. For each state, we used the method of recycled predictions to compare predicted cumulative cases with social distancing compared to without social distancing at 3 weeks after the date of school closure. Estimates are presented in the supplemental material