Table 3.

Welcome mat effect estimates, robustness checks.

Linear probability model (DV=Medicaid participation)

	Unweighted	Drop SSI recipients	Drop respondents with any non-housing assets	All ACS respondents with income <= 100% FPG	All ACS respondents with income <= 150% FPG
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
Expansion x Post	0.016***	0.024***	0.019***	0.015**	0.012**
	(0.005)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.005)
$\stackrel{\_}{Y}$, Pre, exp.	0.396	0.297	0.431	0.423	0.325
Implied effect size	4.0%	8.1%	4.4%	3.5%	3.7%
N	347,781	298,462	314,967	452,929	961,734
	Drop states that had coverage for childless adults in the pre period	Drop early expansion states	Drop states with mid-year expansions	Keep treatment states with lowest pre-period dual enrollment	Drop states that expanded Medicaid in 2015, 2016, or 2017
	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)
Expansion x Post	0.014**	0.019**	0.020***	0.010	0.017**
	(0.005)	(0.008)	(0.006)	(0.007)	(0.006)
$\stackrel{\_}{Y}$, Pre, exp.	0.394	0.378	0.413	0.251	0.420
Implied effect size	3.6%	5.0%	4.8%	4.0%	4.0%
N	314,219	261,488	317,054	148,039	316,994

Notes: All samples consist of respondents to the 2010-17 ACS who are age 65 or older. In columns (4) and (5), the samples are defined from all ACS respondents who reside in the community and meet the income restrictions shown. The samples in columns (1)-(3) and (6)-(10) are defined from the baseline sample, which further restricts the sample to include only those who are income-eligible for Medicaid according to the criteria in their state of residence. Column (6) excludes respondents in the District of Columbia, Delaware, Massachusetts, New York, and Vermont because these states had coverage for childless adults prior to 2014 (as in Miller and Wherry, 2017 and Ghosh et al., 2019). Column (7) excludes respondents in California, Connecticut, the District of Columbia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, and Washington because these states enacted expansions early (as in Frean et al., 2017). Column (8) excludes respondents in Michigan, New Hampshire, Indiana, Louisiana, and Alaska. In column (9), the treatment group is comprised of residents of Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Iowa, Montana, New Hampshire, North Dakota, and Ohio. Column (10) excludes residents of the states that expanded Medicaid after 2014 (but before 2017): Pennsylvania, Indiana, Alaska, Montana, and Louisiana. All models also include the controls reported in the baseline specification shown in Table 2, column 1. Sample weights are used (except in column 1). Standard errors clustered by state are reported in parentheses. Statistical significance is indicated by

^***for the .01 level,

^**for the .05 level and

^*for the .10 level.