Table 3. Impact of stricter restrictions on 7-day moving average growth rates.
| VARIABLES | (1) Tests | (2) Cases | (3) Cases:Tests | (4) Deaths | (5) Deaths:Tests |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OLS | |||||
| Stringency Index (Lag 0) | -0.0000 | -0.0006*** | -0.0005* | -0.0019*** | -0.0007 |
| (0.0001) | (0.0002) | (0.0002) | (0.0005) | (0.0005) | |
| Mean of DV | 0.047 | 0.071 | 0.006 | 0.070 | 0.018 |
| Stringency Index (Lag 7) | -0.0003* | -0.0014*** | -0.0006*** | -0.0024*** | -0.0011*** |
| (0.0002) | (0.0002) | (0.0002) | (0.0004) | (0.0004) | |
| Mean of DV | 0.046 | 0.071 | 0.006 | 0.069 | 0.017 |
| Stringency Index (Lag 14) | -0.0004*** | -0.0014*** | -0.0006*** | -0.0026*** | -0.0013*** |
| (0.0001) | (0.0001) | (0.0001) | (0.0003) | (0.0003) | |
| Mean of DV | 0.046 | 0.069 | 0.006 | 0.069 | 0.017 |
| Stringency Index (Lag 21) | -0.0004*** | -0.0012*** | -0.0005*** | -0.0022*** | -0.0012*** |
| (0.0001) | (0.0001) | (0.0001) | (0.0002) | (0.0003) | |
| Mean of DV | 0.044 | 0.063 | 0.005 | 0.067 | 0.017 |
| Stringency Index (Lag 28) | -0.0004*** | -0.0009*** | -0.0004*** | -0.0016*** | -0.0009*** |
| (0.0001) | (0.0001) | (0.0001) | (0.0002) | (0.0002) | |
| Mean of DV | 0.041 | 0.055 | 0.002 | 0.063 | 0.016 |
| 2SLS: Excluding Subregion IV | |||||
| Stringency Index (Lag 0) | -0.0007** | -0.0015*** | -0.0011** | -0.0060*** | -0.0050*** |
| (0.0003) | (0.0003) | (0.0005) | (0.0013) | (0.0019) | |
| Mean of DV | 0.047 | 0.071 | 0.006 | 0.070 | 0.018 |
| F-Stat | 41.899 | 267.999 | 41.899 | 65.795 | 31.513 |
| Stringency Index (Lag 7) | -0.0009*** | -0.0033*** | -0.0019*** | -0.0053*** | -0.0039*** |
| (0.0003) | (0.0003) | (0.0003) | (0.0007) | (0.0010) | |
| Mean of DV | 0.046 | 0.071 | 0.006 | 0.069 | 0.017 |
| F-Stat | 58.113 | 286.243 | 58.113 | 123.500 | 37.763 |
| Stringency Index (Lag 14) | -0.0009*** | -0.0033*** | -0.0018*** | -0.0046*** | -0.0032*** |
| (0.0002) | (0.0002) | (0.0002) | (0.0005) | (0.0006) | |
| Mean of DV | 0.046 | 0.069 | 0.006 | 0.069 | 0.017 |
| F-Stat | 78.483 | 294.437 | 78.483 | 187.783 | 55.454 |
| Stringency Index (Lag 21) | -0.0007*** | -0.0018*** | -0.0009*** | -0.0037*** | -0.0024*** |
| (0.0002) | (0.0002) | (0.0002) | (0.0003) | (0.0004) | |
| Mean of DV | 0.044 | 0.063 | 0.005 | 0.067 | 0.017 |
| F-Stat | 96.858 | 303.310 | 96.858 | 234.248 | 73.762 |
| Stringency Index (Lag 28) | -0.0006*** | -0.0013*** | -0.0006*** | -0.0026*** | -0.0018*** |
| (0.0001) | (0.0001) | (0.0001) | (0.0002) | (0.0002) | |
| Mean of DV | 0.041 | 0.055 | 0.002 | 0.063 | 0.016 |
| F-Stat | 116.105 | 312.677 | 116.105 | 261.507 | 94.749 |
| Observations (Lag 0) | 10,660 | 18,322 | 10,660 | 15,268 | 9,675 |
| Observations (Lag 7) | 10,607 | 18,119 | 10,607 | 15,215 | 9,651 |
| Observations (Lag 14) | 10,537 | 17,850 | 10,537 | 15,149 | 9,622 |
| Observations (Lag 21) | 10,400 | 17,398 | 10,400 | 15,050 | 9,584 |
| Observations (Lag 28) | 10,133 | 16,792 | 10,133 | 14,860 | 9,499 |
| Number of country | 80 | 127 | 80 | 121 | 78 |
| Fixed Effects | Country; Days since first case | ||||
Robust standard errors clustered at the country level.
* p < 0.10;
** p < 0.05;
*** p < 0.01.