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. 2021 Jun 28;31(6):917–932. doi: 10.1007/s10389-021-01611-0

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 2 — a Community elimination: SD = 1.0 (day 35), trigger = 100 daily cases, P_Q = 0. b Community elimination: SD = 0.7 (day 35), trigger = 100 daily cases, P_Q = 0. N.B: Simulations (median, quartiles, 5–95 percentiles) are from a 1000 members ensemble and observed daily new local Australian cases for SD levels. Median (thick line), quartiles (thin lines), 5–95 percentiles (dashed lines), observed daily new Australian local cases, 6 June to 15 July 2020 (*)