Table 1.

Model parameters, prior values, and prior ranges and maximum likelihood values for those parameters subject to Bayesian inference

Symbol	Description	Prior value(s)	Maximum likelihood value
TS	Days to onset of symptoms	5 days
TI	Days to onset of infectivity	4 days
TF	Days to cessation of infectivity	8 days
TH	Days to develop severe symptoms	10 days
TD	Days to first deaths	12 days
TR	Days to first recovery	19 days
TM	Maximum period cases are active	40 days
PA	Probability cases are asymptomatic	[0.1 0.4]	0.32
PH	Probability of hospitalisation for symptomatic cases	0.1
PM	Probability of death among hospitalised cases	0.11
PD	Daily probability fatally ill die after TD	0.15
PR	Daily probability of recovery after TR	0.2
G0	Daily transmission rate before social distancing	[0.3 0.65]	0.5
GLD	Daily transmission rate at peak of March–April lockdown	[0.05 0.25]	0.11
RSD	Relaxation of social distancing = (G–GLD)/(G0–GLD)	[0.7 1.0]	0.98
FA	Ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic transmission	[0.1 0.4]	0.19
PDC	Daily probability of detection in community	[0.2 0.5]	0.36
PDSQ	Daily probability of detection in self-isolation	0.8
PT	Daily probability of tracing downstream contacts	[0.2 0.8]	0.24
PL	Daily probability of transmission from self-isolated cases	[0.1 0.3]	0.11
PU	Fraction of community hidden/uncooperative	[0.1 0.6]	0.39
PQ	Daily probability of quarantine breakdown	0.0 to 0.01	0
POP	Total population size	20,000,000
TCAP	Maximum tracing capacity in daily new cases	100–500	500