. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2021 Dec 1.

Published in final edited form as: Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2020 Jul 21;18(13):3026–3039. doi: 10.1016/j.cgh.2020.07.031

Table 1.

Model input parameters for Asian American males: baseline probabilities

Baseline probabilities according to ethnicity	Base case	Sensitivity analysis range	Monte Carlo distribution	References
Japanese American
➢ HP gastritis	0.27	0.1-0.6	Beta	^30-34
➢ Non-HP gastritis	0.03	0.03-0.12	Beta	³⁵
➢ Atrophic gastritis	0.24	0.3-0.87	Beta	^34,36-38
➢ GIM	0.36	0.18-0.58	Beta	^41-43
➢ Dysplasia	0.06	0.05-0.09	Beta	^{9,11,12,15,44}
➢ Local NCGA	0.00006	0.0001-0.00044	Beta	^{9,11,12,15,44}
➢ Regional NCGA	0.00012	0.00001-0.00011	Beta	^{9,11,12,15,44}
➢ Distant NCGA	0.000053	0.00001-0.00015	Beta	^{9,11,12,15,44}
Chinese American
➢ HP gastritis	0.24	0.2-0.25	Beta	^24,34
➢ Non-HP gastritis	0.05	0.01-0.074	Beta	^34,42,45
➢ Atrophic gastritis	0.25	0.1-0.25	Beta	^34,36,42,45
➢ GIM	0.35	0.14-0.35	Beta	^34,38,39,46
➢ Dysplasia	0.06	0.05-0.065	Beta	^41-43
➢ Local NCGA	0.00004	0.00001-0.00044	Beta	^9,11,12,15
➢ Regional NCGA	0.000085	0.00001-0.00011	Beta	^9,11,12,15
➢ Distant NCGA	0.000036	0.00001-0.00015	Beta	^9,11,12,15
Korean American
➢ HP gastritis	0.36	0.19-0.65	Beta	^34,47-49
➢ Non-HP gastritis	0.01	0.005-0.1	Beta	^34,42,45
➢ Atrophic gastritis	0.10	0.05-0.25	Beta	^34,48
➢ GIM	0.40	0.21-0.6	Beta	^34,39,48,49
➢ Dysplasia	0.08	0.05-0.09	Beta	^41-43
➢ Local NCGA	0.00013	0.0001-0.00044	Beta	^{9,11,12,15,44}
➢ Regional NCGA	0.00027	0.00001-0.00011	Beta	^{9,11,12,15,44}
➢ Distant NCGA	0.00011	0.00001-0.00015	Beta	^{9,11,12,15,44}
Vietnamese American
➢ HP gastritis	0.34	0.26-0.7	Beta	^24,34,50
➢ Non-HP gastritis	0.03	0.01-0.25	Beta	^34,42,45
➢ Atrophic gastritis	0.24	0.08-0.85	Beta	^34,50,51
➢ GIM	0.28	0.2-0.4	Beta	^34,39,50,51
➢ Dysplasia	0.06	0.05-0.09	Beta	^41-43
➢ Local NCGA	0.000053	0.0001-0.000442	Beta	^9,11,12,15
➢ Regional NCGA	0.00011	0.00001-0.00011	Beta	^9,11,12,15
➢ Distant NCGA	0.000046	0.00001-0.00015	Beta	^9,11,12,15
Filipino American
➢ HP gastritis	0.40	0.2-0.6	Beta	⁵²
➢ Non-HP gastritis	0.10	0.07-0.25	Beta	^34,42,45
➢ Atrophic gastritis	0.20	0.15-0.65	Beta	^34,50,51
➢ GIM	0.13	0.12-0.33	Beta	³⁹
➢ Dysplasia	0.06	0.05-0.09	Beta	^41-43
➢ Local NCGA	0.000018	0.00001-0.00005	Beta	^{9,11,12,15,44}
➢ Regional NCGA	0.000037	0.00001-0.00005	Beta	^{9,11,12,15,44}
➢ Distant NCGA	0.000015	0.00001-0.00005	Beta	^{9,11,12,15,44}
Southeast Asian American
➢ HP gastritis	0.19	0.10-0.30	Beta	^24,34,53-55
➢ Non-HP gastritis	0.10	0.07-0.25	Beta	^54-56
➢ Atrophic gastritis	0.35	0.02-0.65	Beta	³⁴
➢ GIM	0.14	0.09-0.33	Beta	^34,39
➢ Dysplasia	0.06	0.05-0.09	Beta	^41-43
➢ Local NCGA	0.000019	0.0001-0.000442	Beta	^9,11,12,15
➢ Regional NCGA	0.000041	0.00001-0.00011	Beta	^9,11,12,15
➢ Distant NCGA	0.000017	0.00001-0.00015	Beta	^9,11,12,15
Overall Asian American, male
➢ HP gastritis	0.22	0.10-0.26	Beta	^14,34
➢ Non-HP gastritis	0.12	0.07-0.25	Beta	^14,34
➢ Atrophic gastritis	0.29	0.07-0.65	Beta	^14,34
➢ GIM	0.25	0.10-0.40	Beta	^14,34,39
➢ Dysplasia	0.07	0.05-0.09	Beta	^14,41-43
➢ Local NCGA	0.00018	0.0001-0.000442	Beta	^9,11,14,15
➢ Regional NCGA	0.00005	0.00001-0.00011	Beta	^9,11,14,15
➢ Distant NCGA	0.00003	0.00001-0.00015	Beta	^9,11,14,15

Abbreviations: HP = Helicobacter pylori; GIM = intestinal metaplasia; NCGA = noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma

Note: this is a consolidated list of the inputs used and represents the most pertinent transitions. Transition and baseline probabilities were altered according to Asian American ethnicity and sex whenever possible based on available data. While the literature differentiates the incidence of malignant states by sex, for some of the premalignant states (HP gastritis, non-HP gastritis, atrophic gastritis, GIM, dysplasia), there were no or limited data available differentiating incidence/prevalence by sex; in these instances, the same baseline probabilities were used for males and females along with appropriate sensitivity analyses (see Supplemental Material).

Note: for the purpose of the analysis, the base case probabilities were altered when the sum total of all probabilities exceeded “1” (100%), for example, in patients with HP gastritis and atrophic gastritis. Thus, each lesion was considered to be mutually exclusive with the more severe lesion assigned the higher probability in circumstances of overlap.