Table 3.
Demographic data indicators required for the MGDb Method and comparison of local data with United Nations World Population Prospects (UN WPP) data indicators
| Demographic indicator | Data source | Civil division | National total/rate | WPP 2010–2014 | WPP /MGDb-ZA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (1000s) | CARe projection modelj | Provincial | 52,261 | 52,837 | 1.01 |
| Annual live births (1000s) | CARe projection modelj | Provincial | 1169 | 1115 | 0.95 |
| Infant mortality rate (per 1000 LB) | CARe projection modelj | Provincial | 28.3 | 38.3 | 1.35 |
| Under-5 mortality rate (per 1000 LB) | CARe projection modelj | Provincial | 46 | 50.8 | 1.10 |
| Mean life expectancy: male & female (years) | CARe projection modelj | Provincial | 62 | 57.1 | 0.92 |
| Total fertility rate | (Dorrington and Moultrie 2015) | Provincial | 2.5 | 2.4 | 0.96 |
| Sex ratio at birth | CARe projection modelj | Provincial | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.01 |
| Stillbirth rate (per 1000 total births) | (Cousens et al. 2011) | National | 20.4 | – | – |
| Neonatal mortality rate (per 1000 LB) | Estimated at 40% of IMR | Provincial | 11.3 | 11.3 | 1.00 |
| Crude birth rate | CARe projection modelj | Provincial | 21.9 | 21.1 | 0.96 |
| Percentage urbanized | CARe projection modelj | Provincial | 63.0% | 62.2% | 0.99 |
| Percentage mothers aged 35 plusk | CARe projection modelj | Provincial | 13.3% | 11.6% | 0.87 |
| Coefficient of consanguinity (F)l | (Stevenson et al. 1966, Bundey and Alam 1993, Bittles and Black 2015, Blencowe et al. 2018a) | National | 0.00033 | – | – |
j Personal Communication (email), Prof R Dorrington, Centre for Actuarial Research, University of Cape Town, August 2016
k Percentage of mothers aged 35+ is required for calculating estimates for chromosomal disorders
l Coefficient of consanguinity and HIV/AIDS-related mortality are used to adjust the IMR for calculating access to services (Modell et al. 2016)