Table 4.
Full model
| Dependent variable: Excess mortality in the first 6 months of 2020 | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OLS | OLS | OLS | OLS | OLS | OLS | OLS | OLS | |
| Population 2019 (ln) | 0.419 | 0.918 | 1.040 | −0.803 | 1.703 | 0.932 | 0.703 | 0.953 |
| (1.196) | (1.229) | (1.344) | (2.362) | (1.598) | (1.405) | (1.479) | (1.475) | |
| GDP per capita 2018 (ln) | 10.564*** | 10.220** | 9.034*** | 7.745** | 6.299** | 7.824** | 15.083*** | 6.583* |
| (2.927) | (4.485) | (2.805) | (3.070) | (3.044) | (3.788) | (3.546) | (3.556) | |
| Population density 2018 (ln) | −0.310 | 1.351 | −2.004* | −1.426 | −2.700** | −1.837* | −1.007 | ‐1.723 |
| (0.541) | (1.034) | (1.025) | (1.108) | (1.058) | (1.072) | (1.252) | (1.065) | |
| Air passengers 2018 (ln) | −0.314 | −0.198 | −0.194 | −0.274 | −0.429 | −0.172 | −0.156 | ‐0.317 |
| (0.239) | (0.223) | (0.287) | (0.347) | (0.335) | (0.300) | (0.333) | (0.313) | |
| Accessibility by road 2014 (ln) | 5.635*** | 4.845** | 6.714*** | 5.491*** | 5.880*** | 7.825*** | 6.778*** | 9.526*** |
| (1.712) | (2.071) | (1.634) | (1.816) | (1.991) | (2.686) | (2.158) | (2.766) | |
| Share of population over 65 2019 | −20.896 | −26.778 | −36.614 | −62.329* | −29.443 | 9.066 | ‐21.209 | |
| (24.026) | (25.100) | (26.978) | (32.399) | (25.197) | (30.945) | (26.228) | ||
| Share of adults with higher education 2017 | −0.216* | 0.183* | 0.175* | 0.160* | 0.195* | 0.233** | 0.256** | |
| (0.128) | (0.095) | (0.103) | (0.093) | (0.104) | (0.115) | (0.105) | ||
| Average temperature 2019 | −1.818*** | ‐0.557* | ‐0.729* | 0.133 | −0.676* | −0.782* | ‐1.011** | |
| (0.528) | (0.326) | (0.376) | (0.455) | (0.386) | (0.436) | (0.468) | ||
| Average precipitation 2019 | −2.634** | −2.830** | −2.793** | −2.093* | −2.879** | −4.679*** | ‐3.425** | |
| (1.162) | (1.292) | (1.347) | (1.232) | (1.304) | (1.559) | (1.466) | ||
| Regional autonomy 2016 | −0.459*** | −0.373*** | −0.441*** | −0.406*** | −0.781*** | ‐0.368* | ||
| (0.107) | (0.113) | (0.104) | (0.150) | (0.278) | (0.210) | |||
| Frequency of meeting friends (once a week or more) 2016 | 0.210*** | 0.237*** | 0.127* | 0.199*** | 0.201** | 0.171** | ||
| (0.064) | (0.070) | (0.069) | (0.066) | (0.081) | (0.074) | |||
| Change in regional government quality 2010‐2017 | 3.511* | 2.654 | 1.576 | 3.253 | 6.354** | 3.301 | ||
| (1.921) | (2.029) | (2.137) | (2.090) | (2.567) | (2.396) | |||
| National government effectiveness 2018 | −9.702*** | −12.553*** | −9.427*** | −11.199*** | −8.693** | ‐7.699** | ||
| (3.112) | (3.536) | (3.327) | (3.768) | (3.473) | (3.554) | |||
| Change in national government effectiveness 1998‐2018 | −17.787*** | −16.865*** | −12.649*** | −16.032*** | −32.281*** | ‐17.533** | ||
| (3.001) | (2.940) | (3.005) | (3.706) | (10.513) | (6.690) | |||
| Generalised trust 2016 | 1.994 | 4.802 | −0.514 | 1.480 | −3.273 | ‐0.908 | ||
| (3.147) | (3.357) | (3.525) | (3.396) | (4.707) | (3.430) | |||
| Bridging social networks 2016 | −3.668** | −5.232*** | −5.139*** | ‐3.116* | −4.078* | ‐2.797 | ||
| (1.692) | (1.951) | (1.864) | (1.858) | (2.242) | (1.822) | |||
| Total household carbon footprint 2010 (ln) | 2.759* | |||||||
| (1.610) | ||||||||
| Average household carbon footprint 2010 (ln) | 20.141*** | |||||||
| (6.504) | ||||||||
| Air pollution 2016 (ln) | −4.041 | |||||||
| (6.724) | ||||||||
| Doctors per capita 2017 (ln) | −6.063* | |||||||
| (3.131) | ||||||||
| Hospital beds per capita 2017 (ln) | ‐6.967** | |||||||
| (3.104) | ||||||||
| Country fixed effects | Yes | Yes | No | No | No | No | No | No |
| No. of regions | 187 | 182 | 148 | 128 | 128 | 148 | 122 | 124 |
| R 2 | 0.565 | 0.629 | 0.491 | 0.516 | 0.540 | 0.493 | 0.477 | 0.491 |
| Adjusted R 2 | 0.497 | 0.559 | 0.428 | 0.441 | 0.469 | 0.427 | 0.392 | 0.409 |
| Degrees of freedom | 161 | 152 | 131 | 110 | 110 | 130 | 104 | 106 |
| F test | 10.02 | 9.207 | 11.77 | 9.518 | 5.118 | 5.968 |
Note: Clustered standard errors at regional (NUTS2) level in parentheses.
***
p < .01.
**
p < .05.
*
p < .1.