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. 2021 Jun 30;339:108648. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2021.108648

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© 2021 Published by Elsevier Inc.

Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.

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Fig. 10 — Geographic spread of the disease in Scenario 3. Extrapolated real world data (left) and simulated number of infections (right), relative per 100 000 inhabitants, on September 15 (top) and September 30 (bottom). On average we have 44 exceedances of 200 infections per 100 000 inhabitants where stricter local NPIs are implemented.