Table 3. Possible Triage Outcomes With Expedited Retesting for a Woman With CIN Grade 2 or 3.
| Triage type | Probability, % (95% CI) | Outcome | Time to CIN grade 2 or 3 detection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Initial screening (HPV/LBC triage), HPV- and CIN grade 2 or 3–cytology positive | 71.5 (63.1-78.4) | Colposcopy | Immediate |
| HPV detected, CIN grade 2 or 3–cytology negative | 23.2 (16.4-31.6) | Expedited retest | Expedited test dependent |
| HPV missed, no cytology triagea | 5.3 (NA) | False negative | Next screening cycle at earliest |
| HPV-only expedited retest; HPV detecteda | 94.7 (NA) | Colposcopy | 6-18 mos after initial screening |
| Probability of missing CIN grade 2 or 3 after retest | 1.2 (0.9-1.7) | NA | NA |
| LBC-only expedited retest; CIN grade 2 or 3 detected | 75.5 (66.6-82.7) | Colposcopy | 6-18 mos after initial screening |
| CIN grade 2 or 3 missed | 24.5 (17.3-33.4) | False negative | Next screening cycle at earliest |
| Probability of missing CIN grade 2 or 3 after retest | 5.7 (2.8-10.6) | NA | NA |
| HPV and LBC expedited retest; either HPV or CIN grade 2or 3 detected | 98.7 (98.2-99.1) | Colposcopy | 6-18 mos after initial |
| Both HPV and CIN grade 2 or 3 missed | 1.3 (0.9-1.8) | False negative | Next screening cycle at earliest |
| Probability of missing CIN grade 2 or 3 after retest | 0.3 (0.2-0.6) | NA | NA |
Abbreviations: CIN, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia; HPV, human papillomavirus; LBC, liquid-based cytology; NA, not applicable.
a
Probabilities inferred from high-risk HPV test sensitivity value, as derived in eAppendix in the Supplement.