. 2020 Aug 29;68(3):1384–1391. doi: 10.1111/tbed.13802

TABLE 5.

Sensitivity analysis of the median epidemic size of simulated ASF outbreaks to indirect contact transmission probability in a population of 7,882 pig farms

Scenarios	Parameters		±% change of parameters		Epidemic size median (5 and 95 percentile)	% change in median outcome compared to baseline
Scenarios	DC Transmission probability	IC Transmission probability	DC Transmission probability	IC Transmission probability	Epidemic size median (5 and 95 percentile)	% change in median outcome compared to baseline
Baseline	0.6	0.6	N/A	N/A	7,640 (6,729–7,790)	N/A
IC1	0.6	0.45	N/A	−25%	6,201 (1,699–7,015)	−18.84%
IC2	0.6	0.3	N/A	−50%	1,106 (0–3,152)	−85.52%
IC3	0.6	0.15	N/A	−75%	10 (0–152)	−99.99%

Abbreviation: DC, direct contact; IC (small and medium farms): indirect contact.