Table 3.
Absolute risk of advanced* neoplasia at follow-up evaluation, according to baseline patient and adenoma characteristics among individuals with low-risk adenomas according to UK guidelines† and EU/US guidelines‡
| UK guidelines (373/4516) |
EU/US guidelines (188/2477) |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No events/no at risk | Absolute risk (95% CI) | No events/no. at risk | Absolute risk (95% CI) | |
| Age (years) | ||||
| <50 | 19/490 | 3.9 (2.5 to 6.0) | 7/243 | 2.9 (1.4 to 5.9) |
| ≥50 and <70 | 241/2991 | 8.1 (7.1 to 9.1) | 122/1620 | 7.5 (6.3 to 8.9) |
| ≥70 | 114/1035 | 10.9 (9.2 to 13.0) | 59/614 | 9.6 (7.5 to 12.2) |
| Sex | ||||
| Female | 96/1311 | 7.3 (6.0 to 8.9) | 43/652 | 6.6 (4.9 to 8.8) |
| Male | 277/3205 | 8.6 (7.7 to 9.7) | 145/1825 | 7.9 (6.8 to 9.3) |
| Race | ||||
| White | 342/4034 | 8.5 (7.7 to 9.7) | 172/2227 | 7.7 (6.7 to 8.9) |
| Black | 15/237 | 6.3 (3.8 to 10.3) | 11/147 | 7.5 (4.3 to 13.1) |
| Other | 16/245 | 6.5 (4.0 to 10.4) | 5/103 | 4.9 (2.0 to 11.3) |
| Family history of colorectal cancer§ | ||||
| No | 260/3174 | 8.2 (7.3 to 9.2) | 150/1875 | 8.0 (4.5 to 8.7) |
| Yes | 86/1054 | 8.2 (6.6 to 10.0) | 33/525 | 6.3 (4.5 to 8.7) |
| Cigarette smoking status¶ | ||||
| Never | 117/1562 | 7.5 (6.3 to 8.9) | 64/814 | 7.9 (6.2 to 9.9) |
| Former | 203/2241 | 9.0 (7.9 to 10.3) | 102/1261 | 8.0 (6.7 to 9.7) |
| Current | 51/691 | 7.4 (5.6 to 9.6) | 21/387 | 5.4 (3.6 to 8.2) |
| Body mass index in kg/m2** | ||||
| <25 | 111/1297 | 8.6 (7.2 to 10.2) | 56/679 | 8.2 (6.3 to 10.6) |
| 25 to <30 | 166/2049 | 8.1 (7.0 to 9.4) | 85/1145 | 7.4 (6.0 to 9.1) |
| 30+ | 94/1161 | 8.1 (6.7 to 9.8) | 46/650 | 7.1 (5.3 to 9.3) |
| Previous polyp†† | ||||
| No | 202/3113 | 6.5 (5.7 to 7.4) | 107/1780 | 6.0 (5.0 to 7.2) |
| Yes | 160/1313 | 12.2 (10.5 to 14.1) | 74/641 | 11.5 (9.3 to 14.3) |
| Adenoma characteristics | ||||
| Adenoma number | ||||
| 1 | 257/3369 | 7.6 (6.8 to 8.6) | 137/1887 | 7.3 (6.2 to 8.5) |
| 2 | 116/1147 | 10.1 (8.5 to 12.0) | 51/590 | 8.6 (6.6 to 11.2) |
| Adenoma locations‡‡ | ||||
| Distal | 143/2201 | 6.5 (5.5 to 7.6) | 79/1224 | 6.4 (5.2 to 8.0) |
| Proximal | 179/1754 | 10.2 (8.9 to 11.7) | 81/982 | 8.2 (6.7 to 10.1) |
| Distal and proximal | 43/397 | 10.8 (8.1 to 14.3) | 24/218 | 11.0 (7.5 to 15.9) |
| Adenoma size (mm) | ||||
| <5 | 170/2179 | 7.8 (6.7 to 9.0) | 91/1255 | 7.3 (5.9 to 8.8) |
| 5 to <10 | 203/2337 | 8.7 (7.6 to 9.9) | 97/1222 | 7.9 (6.5 to 9.6) |
| Adenoma histology§§ | ||||
| Tubular | 285/3579 | 8.0 (7.1 to 8.9) | 188/2477 | 7.6 (6.6 to 8.7) |
| Tubulovillous/villous | 47/386 | 12.2 (9.3 to 15.9) | 0 | 0 |
| High-grade dysplasia¶¶ | ||||
| No | 263/3264 | 8.0 (7.1 to 9.0) | 188/2477 | 7.6 (6.6 to 8.7) |
| Yes | 13/119 | 10.9 (6.4 to 18.0) | 0 | 0 |
Adenoma ≥1 cm in size; or containing >25% villous or tubulovillous histology; or the presence of high-grade dysplasia; or colorectal cancer.
Low-risk adenomas defined by UK guidelines as 1–2 adenomas <1 cm in diameter, regardless of histology or dysplasia grade.
Low-risk adenomas defined by US guidelines as 1–2 tubular adenomas <1 cm in diameter, without villous/tubulovillous histology and without high-grade dysplasia.
Family history data unavailable (n=288).
Smoking data unavailable (n=22).
Body mass index data unavailable (n=9).
Previous polyp data unavailable (n=90).
Adenoma location data unavailable (n=164).
Histology data unavailable (n=551).
High-grade dysplasia data unavailable (n=1133).
EU, European Union.