Table 4.
Risk of advanced* neoplasia at follow-up evaluation, according to baseline patient and adenoma characteristics among individuals with low-risk adenomas according to UK guidelines† and EU/US guidelines‡
| UK guidelines (373/4516) |
EU/US guidelines (188/2477) |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| n, % | Crude OR (95% CI) | Adjusted OR§ (95% CI) | n, % | Crude OR (95% CI) | Adjusted OR§ (95% CI) | |
| Age (years) | ||||||
| <50 | 19 (3.9) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 7 (2.9) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) |
| ≥50 and <70 | 241 (8.1) | 2.46 (1.52 to 3.99) | 2.21 (1.10 to 4.45) | 122 (7.5) | 3.18(1.46 to 6.94) | 2.99 (1.29 to 6.95) |
| ≥70 | 114 (10.9) | 3.78 (2.28 to 6.26) | 3.05 (1.47 to 6.30) | 59 (9.6) | 4.64 (2.07 to 10.38) | 4.08 (1.71 to 9.76) |
| Sex | ||||||
| Female | 96 (7.3) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 43 (6.6) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) |
| Male | 277 (8.6) | 1.38 (1.08 to 1.76) | 1.37 (0.98 to 1.91) | 145 (8.0) | 1.42 (0.99 to 2.03) | 1.39 (0.95 to 2.03) |
| Previous polyp | ||||||
| No | 202 (6.5) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 107 (6.0) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) |
| Yes | 160 (12.2) | 2.35 (1.88 to 2.95) | 2.34 (1.73 to 3.18) | 74 (11.5) | 2.54 (1.84 to 3.51) | 2.25 (1.61 to 3.15) |
| Race | ||||||
| White | 342 (8.5) | 1.00 (ref) | 172 (7.7) | 1.00 (ref) | ||
| Black | 15(6.3) | 0.75 (0.43 to 1.29) | 11 (7.5) | 1.07 (0.56 to 2.06) | ||
| Other | 16 (6.5) | 0.64 (0.38 to 1.08) | 5 (4.9) | 0.50 (0.20 to 1.26) | ||
| Family history of colorectal cancer | ||||||
| No | 260 (8.2) | 1.00 (ref) | 150 (8.0) | 1.00 (ref) | ||
| Yes | 86 (8.2) | 1.04 (0.80 to 1.35) | 33 (6.3) | 0.89 (0.56 to 1.25) | ||
| Cigarette smoking status | ||||||
| Never | 117 (7.5) | 1.00 (ref) | 64 (7.9) | 1.00 (ref) | ||
| Former | 203 (9.1) | 1.31 (1.02 to 1.66) | 102 (8.1) | 1.05 (0.75 to 1.47) | ||
| Current | 51 (7.4) | 1.01 (0.71 to 1.44) | 21 (5.4) | 0.67 (0.40 to 1.12) | ||
| Body mass index in kg/m2 | ||||||
| <25 | 111 (8.6) | 1.00 (ref) | 56 (8.3) | 1.00 (ref) | ||
| 25 to <30 | 166 (8.1) | 1.01 (0.78 to 1.30) | 85 (7.4) | 0.98 (0.68 to 1.41) | ||
| 30+ | 94 (8.1) | 1.01 (0.75 to 1.35) | 46 (7.1) | 0.91 (0.60 to 1.37) | ||
| Adenoma characteristics | ||||||
| Adenoma number | ||||||
| 1 | 257 (7.6) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 137 (7.3) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) |
| 2 | 116 (10.1) | 1.66 (1.31 to 2.11) | 1.26 (0.85 to 1.87) | 51 (8.6) | 1.54 (1.09 to 2.19) | 1.22 (0.78 to 1.92) |
| Adenoma location | ||||||
| Distal | 143 (6.5) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 79 (6.5) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) |
| Proximal | 179 (10.2) | 1.82 (1.44 to 2.30) | 1.60 (1.17 to 2.18) | 81 (8.3) | 1.46 (1.05 to 2.02) | 1.41 (1.00 to 1.99) |
| Distal and proximal | 43 (10.8) | 2.26 (1.55 to 3.28) | 1.74 (0.97 to 3.13) | 24 (11.0) | 2.53 (1.53 to 4.21) | 1.98 (1.04 to 3.79) |
| Adenoma size (mm) | ||||||
| <5 | 170 (7.8) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 91 (7.3) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) |
| 5 to <10 | 203 (8.7) | 1.12 (0.90 to 1.39) | 1.17 (0.87 to 1.58) | 97 (7.9) | 1.13 (0.83 to 1.53) | 1.20 (0.87 to 1.66) |
| Adenoma histology | ||||||
| Tubular | 285 (8.0) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 188 (7.6) | N/A¶ | N/A |
| Tubulovillous/villous | 47 (12.2) | 1.52 (1.08 to 2.13) | 1.77 (1.17 to 2.66) | 0 (0.0) | ||
| High-grade dysplasia | ||||||
| No | 263 (8.1) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 188 (7.6) | N/A | N/A |
| Yes | 13 (10.9) | 1.42 (0.77 to 2.62) | 0.88 (0.41 to 1.88) | 0 (0.0) | ||
*
Adenoma >1 cm in size, and/or containing >25% villous or tubulovillous histology, presence of high-grade dysplasia or colorectal cancer.
†
Low-risk adenomas defined by UK guidelines as 1–2 adenomas <1 cm in diameter, regardless of histology or dysplasia.
‡
Low-risk adenomas defined by US guidelines as 1–2 tubular adenomas <1 cm in diameter.
§
Models include simultaneous adjustment for all variables.
¶
Not applicable given that these characteristics are not part of the guidelines.
EU, European Union.