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. 2021 Jul 1;9(9):e1197–e1200. doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(21)00284-9

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© 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license

Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.

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Feasibility and effects of rapid-response vaccination strategies

(A) Time course of test positivity rate in New Delhi (India), during the first quarter of 2021 (ie, between the first and second epidemic waves in the city). The horizontal, dashed line shows a test positivity rate of 0·5%; this threshold was crossed in early March, 2021, when the second wave was underway, illustrating the potential value of this threshold as a trigger for responsive vaccination. (B) Model projections for mortality during the second wave in a hypothetical district in India, where 25% of the population has previous immunity, with a basic reproduction number of 2, and under three different scenarios: no intervention; accelerated vaccination to cover 75% of the population aged 18 years or older within 1 month of exceeding a test positivity rate of 0·5%; and in addition to accelerated vaccination, implementing district-level non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce transmission by 25%, for the duration of the vaccination campaign. Vertical dashed lines show the duration of interventions (vaccination and NPIs). The model assumes that the vaccine can reduce severe disease and mortality by 60%, but with no effect on acquisition of infection (see the appendix p 11 for alternative assumptions).