TABLE 6.
Sensitivity analysis (the?wHI‐?wMED‐?wLO refer to the number of weeks at each level of social restrictions in that scenario)
| SCENARIO: duration social restrictions | Total cases | Hospital admissions | PCR‐positive deaths | Life years lost | GDP/life‐year saved vs base £k |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seasonality Colder March = Winter Reproduction Rates | |||||
| Base: 0wHI‐0wMED‐26wLO | 1 393 750 | 37 670 | 9400 | 110 140 | |
| I: 0wHI‐8wMED‐18wLO | 342 510 | 11 440 | 3470 | 40 640 | −£127 |
| II: 4wHI‐12wMED‐9wLO | 190 210 | 7500 | 2560 | 30 110 | −£310 |
| III: 26wHI‐0wMED‐0wLO | 180 460 | 7240 | 2490 | 29 410 | −£941 |
| Virus Base Reproduction Rate Increases: +10% | |||||
| Base: 0wHI‐0wMED‐26wLO | 2 916 120 | 78 830 | 19 530 | 228 310 | |
| I: 0wHI‐8wMED‐18wLO | 624 520 | 21 370 | 6490 | 75 820 | −£58 |
| II: 4wHI‐12wMED‐9wLO | 333 800 | 13 840 | 4740 | 55 680 | −£144 |
| III: 26wHI‐0wMED‐0wLO | 320 740 | 13 490 | 4660 | 54 760 | −£438 |
| The virus remains Infectious: 14 d | |||||
| Base: 0wHI‐0wMED‐26wLO | 1 456 970 | 38 820 | 9440 | 111 280 | |
| I: 0wHI‐8wMED‐18wLO | 443 400 | 13 800 | 3850 | 45 170 | −£133 |
| II: 4wHI‐12wMED‐9wLO | 241 050 | 8680 | 2680 | 31 560 | −£311 |
| III: 26wHI‐0wMED‐0wLO | 218 960 | 8120 | 2550 | 30 080 | −£936 |
| Vaccine Effectiveness falls to Round 1:50% + Round 2:15% | |||||
| Base: 0wHI‐0wMED‐26wLO | 2 081 050 | 62 660 | 16 900 | 184 310 | |
| I: 0wHI‐8wMED‐18wLO | 370 190 | 13 920 | 4630 | 50 800 | −£66 |
| II: 4wHI‐12wMED‐9wLO | 189 260 | 8700 | 3300 | 36 440 | −£168 |
| III: 26wHI‐0wMED‐0wLO | 179 500 | 8400 | 3220 | 35 610 | −£511 |
| Vaccination Delivery Rate falls to 2 000 000/wk | |||||
| Base: 0wHI‐0wMED‐26wLO | 1 401 100 | 36 800 | 8980 | 107 080 | |
| I: 0wHI‐8wMED‐18wLO | 289 670 | 9950 | 3100 | 36 560 | −£125 |
| II: 4wHI‐12wMED‐9wLO | 158 170 | 6640 | 2340 | 27 760 | −£313 |
| III: 26wHI‐0wMED‐0wLO | 151 470 | 6460 | 2300 | 27 280 | −£952 |
| Worst Case (1,2,4,5 together) | |||||
| Base: 0wHI‐0wMED‐26wLO | 4 026 910 | 107 130 | 26 050 | 303 740 | |
| I: 0wHI‐8wMED‐18wLO | 865 750 | 27 620 | 7960 | 92 580 | −£42 |
| II: 4wHI‐12wMED‐10wLO | 440 700 | 16 620 | 5390 | 63 140 | −£103 |
| III: 26wHI‐0wMED‐0wLO | 411 320 | 15 870 | 5220 | 61 140 | −£313 |
| Opportunity Vaccine Effectiveness Round 1 = 80%, Round 2 = 10% & Delivery 3 000 000/wk | |||||
| Base: 0wHI‐0wMED‐26wLO | 432 320 | 12 200 | 3150 | 39 640 | |
| I: 0wHI‐8wMED‐18wLO | 171 610 | 6030 | 1830 | 23 510 | −£546 |
| II: 4wHI‐12wMED‐9wLO | 113 860 | 4660 | 1530 | 19 940 | −£1259 |
| III: 26wHI‐0wMED‐0wLO | 111 980 | 4590 | 1510 | 19 750 | −£3821 |