TABLE 2.

Comparison of key assumptions for April and September 2020 MIRAGRODEP‐COVID 19 scenarios

	Scenario
	April 2020	September 2020
Health and pandemic projections	Imperial College (Walker et al., 2020); March 26th version	London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (Pearson et al., 2020); June 5th, 2020 version)
Health (nonpharmaceutical) mitigation policies	Imperial College, “Social distancing of the whole population” scenario for all countries	Countries mapped to 10 types of responses based on policy descriptions and mobility metrics (Google, 2020; per August 4th, 2020)
Social distancing parameter (e.g., number of workdays lost)	12 weeks of confinement in each country, except for Africa (8 weeks)	Adjusted allowing for country specificities within region (see above)
Value chain disruptions	Postharvest losses for perishable products: +5 points	Postharvest losses for perishable products: +5 points
Transportation and logistics	5% reduction in total factor productivity (TFP) in transport sector	5% reduction in total factor productivity (TFP) in transport sector
Preference shifter for face‐to‐face services	Uniform 25% “shadow tax” equivalent	Country‐specific “shadow tax,” scaled to social distancing intensity (tax ranging between 13% and 45%)

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