TABLE 1.
Epidemic parameters of the SEAPWIR dynamic transmission model and the Markov sub‐model
| Symbol/parameter | Definition | Input value | Calibrated value | Source | Distribution type | Included in OWSAs and PSA | Standard deviation in PSA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β A | The transmission coefficient of the A class | NA | 7.30 × 10−7 | Calibrated | Normal | 7.30 × 10−7 | 10% of mean |
| β P | The transmission coefficient of the L class | NA | 1.00 × 10−9 | Calibrated | Normal | 1.00 × 10−9 | 10% of mean |
| β W | The transmission coefficient of the I class | NA | 5.20 × 10−7 | Calibrated | Normal | 5.20 × 10−7 | 10% of mean |
| r | Fraction moving into social distancing | NA | 0.160 | Calibrated | Beta | 0.160 | 10% of mean |
| δ | Conversion rate of the latent class to asymptomatic and presymptomatic classes | 0.400/d | NA | 19 | Beta | 0.400 | 10% of mean |
| p | The probability of not developing symptoms throughout the course | 0.179 | NA | 22 | NA | NA | NA |
| σ | Rate of transition from presymptomatic to symptomatic | 0.400/d | NA | 24 , 44 , 45 | Beta | 0.400 | 10% of mean |
| ϕ | Rate of diagnosis of the symptomatic | 0.303/d | 21 | Beta | 0.303 | 10% of mean | |
| μ I | The case‐fatality rate of the W class | 0.00150/d | NA | 22 | NA | NA | NA |
| μ W | The case‐fatality rate of the I class | 0.00150/d | NA | Assumed the same as μ I | Beta | 0.00150 | 10% of mean |
| γ A | The recovery rate of the A class | NA | 0.940/d | Calibrated | Beta | 0.940 | 10% of mean |
| γ I | The recovery rate of the I class | 0.0588/d | NA | 46 | NA | NA | NA |
| St = 0 | Initial number in the S class | 9 000 000 | NA | 23 | NA | NA | NA |
| At = 0 | Initial number in A class | 6 | NA | Imputed | NA | NA | NA |
| Lt = 0 | Initial number in L class | 252 | NA | Imputed | NA | NA | NA |
| It = 0 | Initial number in I class | 280 | NA | Imputed | NA | NA | NA |
| p M | Percentage of mild patients | 0.0450 | NA | 22 , 24 | Beta | 10% of mean | |
| p O | Percentage of moderate patients | 0.765 | NA | 22 , 24 | Beta | 10% of mean | |
| p S | Percentage of severe patients | 0.190 | NA | 22 , 24 | Beta | 10% of mean | |
| π MO | Transition probability from mild to moderate | NA | 0.0192/d | Assumed the same as π OS | Beta | 10% of mean | |
| π OS | Transition probability from moderate to severe | NA | 0.0192/d | Estimated | Beta | 10% of mean | |
| π SO | Transition probability from severe to moderate | NA | 0.0288/d | Estimated | Beta | 10% of mean | |
| γ M | Recovery rate of mild patients | 0.0935 | NA | 27 | Beta | 10% of mean | |
| γ O | Recovery rate of moderate patients | 0.0588 | NA | Assumed the same asγ I | Beta | 10% of mean | |
| μ S | Case‐fatality of severe patients | 0.0079 | NA | Estimated | Beta | 10% of mean |
OWSA, 1‐way sensitivity analysis; PSA, probabilistic sensitivity analysis; NA, not applicable.