TABLE 1.

Model assumptions on the natural disease course of PC and its precursors

	Value
Lifetime PC risk	7.5% 1
Treatment mortality	3% 10 , 11
	Progressive‐only pathway	Indolent Included pathway
Stage	Mean duration of progressive stages (years)
Preinvasive stage LGD	3.33	1.11
Preinvasive stage IGD	3.33	1.11
Preinvasive stage HGD	3.33	1.11
Preclinical cancer Stage I	2	0.66
Preclinical cancer Stage II	2	0.66
Preclinical cancer Stage III/IV	1	0.33
Estimated mean total preclinical	14.3	4.8
Stage	Mean duration of indolent stages (years)
Preinvasive stage LGD	n.a.	7.08 a
Preinvasive stage IGD	n.a.	11.78 a
Preinvasive stage HGD	n.a.	24.15 a
Preclinical cancer Stage I	n.a.	Until death from other causes
Stage	Probability of being clinically diagnosed, before moving to the next stage 12 b
Cancer Stage I	5.1%
Cancer Stage II	13.1%
Cancer Stage III/IV	100%
Stage	5‐year relative survival 12 b , c
Clinical cancer Stage I	29.1%
Clinical cancer Stage II	11.4%
Clinical cancer Stage III/IV	0%
Stage	Screen test sensitivity d
Preinvasive stage LGD	60%
Preinvasive stage IGD	60%
Preinvasive stage HGD	75%
Preclinical cancer Stage I	90%
Preclinical cancer Stage II	93%
Preclinical cancer Stage III/IV	99%
	Screen test specificity d
Any pancreatic lesion	90%

Notes: If someone has survived the first 5 years after diagnosis, we assumed lifelong PC survival. Detection (and associated management of preinvasive lesions) was assumed to lead to a 100% cure rate. For resection, we assumed a 3% mortality risk. Stage‐specific survival of screen‐detected invasive cancer was based on observed survival of clinically detected cancer in the Netherlands.

^aOptimized parameter.

^bWeighted averages are used to combine cancer Stage Ia and Ib into Stage I, and IIa and IIb into Stage II.

^cA linear distribution of PC mortality was assumed over 5 years.

^dCombined MRI/EUS.