TABLE 3.

Results of the sensitivity analyses of the two base cases for annual screening

		Incidence (per 100 000 LYs)	Incidence reduction (%)	Mortality (per 100 000 LYs)	Mortality reduction (%)	NNS	NNT	NNSurv
Population without screening		132	n.a.	108	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
Progressive‐only pathway
Base case		67	49.2%	46	57.4%	431	2.9	47
Risk	Halved	34	50% a	23	58.2% b	844	2.8	87
	Doubled	130	48.2% a	89	57.0% b	225	3.0	26
Sensitivity	+5%	66	50.0%	45	58.3%	427	2.8	46
	+10%	64	51.5%	44	59.3%	422	2.8	46
	−5%	68	48.5%	46	57.4%	437	2.9	47
	−10%	69	47.7%	47	56.5%	443	2.9	48
Specificity	85%	66	50%	45	58.3%	429	2.8	67
	95%	67	49.2%	46	57.4%	433	2.8	26
	100%	68	48.5%	46	57.4%	435	2.9	5
Treatment mortality	5%	67	49.2%	48	55.6%	450	3.0	49
Indolent Included pathway
Base case		94	28.8%	64	40.7%	600	4.1	65
Risk	Halved	48	29.4% a	33	40.0% b	1178	4.1	122
	Doubled	182	27.5% a	123	40.6% b	314	4.3	37
Sensitivity	+5%	93	29.5%	63	41.7%	587	4.1	64
	+10%	92	30.3%	62	42.6%	575	4.1	62
	−5%	96	27.3%	65	39.8%	615	4.2	66
	−10%	97	26.5%	66	38.9%	630	4.2	68
Specificity	85%	94	28.8%	63	41.7%	596	4.1	93
	95%	95	28.0%	64	40.7%	605	4.1	36
	100%	96	27.3%	64	40.7%	613	4.2	7
Treatment mortality	5%	94	28.8%	66	38.9%	638	4.4	69

Abbreviations: LYs, life years; NNS, number needed to screen to prevent one cancer death; NNSurv, number needed to surveil; NNT, number needed to treat to prevent one cancer death.

^aReduction of the PC incidence compared to no screening when PC risk is halved: 68, or doubled: 251.

^bMortality reduction compared to no screening in case of halved PC risk: 55, or doubled PC risk: 207.