Table 1.
Initial states and parameter's setting in the model of the main analysis.
| States or parameters | Values or prior distribution |
|---|---|
| States | |
| Susceptible (S0) | 96050000-E0-I0-A0-U0 |
| Latent (E0) | U(0, 10) |
| Confirmed symptomatic infectious (I0) | 0 |
| Asymptomatic infectious (A0) | U(0, 10) |
| Unconfirmed symptomatic infectious (U0) | U(0, 10) |
| Parameters | |
| Latent period (z) | 3 days (Fixed) (2, 24–27) |
| Infectious period of confirmed symptomatic cases (r1) | 3.5 days (Fixed) (5, 22, 28, 29) |
| Infectious period of asymptomatic cases (r2) | 5 days (Fixed) (17) |
| Infectious period of unconfirmed symptomatic cases (r3) | 5 days (Fixed) (17) |
| Duration removed from hospitalization (r) | 10 days (Fixed) (30) |
| Transmission rate due to symptomatic cases (β0) | U(0.8, 1.5) (Estimated) |
| Asymptomatic rate (μ1) | U(0.02, 1) (Estimated) |
| Undetected rate (μ2) | U(0.02, 1) (Estimated) |
| The ratio of transmission rate (θ) | U(0.02, 1) (Estimated) |
| The decreasing rate of transmission rate (α) | U(0.02, 0.3) (Estimated) |