Appendix 1—table 1. Excess disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per 100,000 between 2020 and 2030 per scenario, infection and modelling group.
Scenarios for disruption of routine immunisation (RI) and delay of mass vaccination campaigns (SIAs – supplementary immunisation activities) due to the COVID-19 pandemic for measles vaccination in six countries, meningococcal A vaccination in four countries, and yellow fever vaccination in three countries. The counterfactual comparative scenario (BAU – business as usual) is no disruption to routine or campaign immunisation.
Scenario | Measles, DynaMICE | Measles, IDM | Measles, Penn State | Men A, Cambridge | Men A, KP | Yellow fever, Imperial | Yellow fever, Notre Dame |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
50% RI | 79.2110 | 68.5537 | 2.7503 | 0.1175 | 0.0037 | 9.3283 | 4.3831 |
Postpone 2020 SIAs - > 2021 | 69.9709 | 5.7308 | −0.0990 | 0.2650 | −0.0027 | −2.7355 | −0.5797 |
50% RI, postpone 2020 SIAs - > 2021 | 17.0570 | 74.0683 | 1.6898 | 0.4017 | 0.0004 | 6.5284 | 3.1370 |