Appendix 1—table 10. Excess yellow fever deaths per 100,000 per year between 2020 and 2030 per scenario, year and modelling group.

The counterfactual comparative scenario (BAU – business as usual) is no disruption to routine immunisation (RI) or campaign immunisation (SIAs – supplementary immunisation activities).

Year	50% RI, Imperial	50% RI, Notre Dame	Postpone 2020 SIAs - > 2021, Imperial	Postpone 2020 SIAs - > 2021, Notre Dame	50% RI, postpone 2020 SIAs - > 2021, Imperial	50% RI, postpone 2020 SIAs - > 2021, Notre Dame
2020	0.28	0.12	1.7	0	2.02	0.12
2021	0.22	0.12	−0.36	0.86	−0.15	0.98
2022	0.18	0.09	−0.29	−0.14	−0.12	−0.07
2023	0.16	0.08	−0.25	−0.12	−0.1	0.05
2024	0.13	0.07	−0.2	−0.1	−0.07	0.04
2025	0.13	0.07	−0.19	−0.09	−0.07	−0.04
2026	0.12	0.06	−0.18	−0.09	−0.07	−0.04
2027	0.12	0.06	−0.18	−0.09	−0.06	−0.04
2028	0.11	0.06	−0.17	−0.09	−0.06	−0.04
2029	0.11	0.06	−0.16	−0.08	−0.06	−0.04
2030	0.11	0.06	−0.16	−0.08	−0.06	−0.04