Appendix 1—table 8. Excess measles deaths per 100,000 per year between 2020 and 2030 per scenario, year and modelling group.

The counterfactual comparative scenario (BAU – business as usual) is no disruption to routine immunisation (RI) or campaign immunisation (SIAs – supplementary immunisation activities).

Year	50% RI, DynaMICE	50% RI, IDM	50% RI, Penn State	Postpone 2020 SIAs - > 2021, DynaMICE	Postpone 2020 SIAs - > 2021, IDM	Postpone 2020 SIAs - > 2021, Penn State	50% RI, postpone 2020 SIAs - > 2021, DynaMICE	50% RI, postpone 2020 SIAs - > 2021, IDM	50% RI, postpone 2020 SIAs - > 2021, Penn State
2020	0	0.34	0.06	10.46	2.32	0.7	10.46	3.25	0.82
2021	0	2.7	0.55	0.19	8.32	0.02	0.2	13.55	0.44
2022	3.44	4.98	0	−2.52	−1.27	−0.19	−2.52	0.77	−0.2
2023	28.56	6.57	0	−6.31	−5.48	−0.1	4.96	−0.96	−0.12
2024	−11.77	0.72	−0.03	−14.68	−4.5	−0.12	5.96	−2.48	−0.16
2025	−9.82	−1.52	0.02	16.07	0.67	−0.1	−14.65	0.03	−0.13
2026	−5.38	−0.26	0.01	−7.57	1.83	−0.1	−3.38	1.51	−0.11
2027	0.24	0.23	0.02	0.37	0.36	−0.03	1.08	0.6	−0.04
2028	0.79	0.08	0	0.88	−0.02	−0.03	−0.02	0.01	−0.05
2029	0.55	0.09	−0.02	−0.3	−0.03	−0.05	0.15	−0.16	−0.06
2030	6.55	0.09	0	12.95	−0.26	−0.04	1.45	−0.1	−0.05